The center of gravity of acrylic acid and butyl ester prices is obviously at a historically low level
2023/8/8
Statistics show that for acrylic acid, taking East China market as an example, the five-year average value from 2018 to 2022 is 8,961.13 yuan/ton, during which the average high-end price is 13,100.71 yuan/ton, and the average low-end price is 6,671.69 yuan/ton. As of the end of July 2023, the monthly average market value is 5453.15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.74% from the previous month. Although the price focus of the acrylic acid market in various places in August has remained high due to users' bargain-hunting and low supply, the overall focus of negotiation is still lower than that of 2018-2022.
In terms of butyl acrylate: the five-year average value from 2018 to 2022 is 11,348 yuan/ton, the average high-end price is 16,570.04 yuan/ton, and the average low-end price is 7,771.69 yuan/ton. As of the end of July 2023, the monthly average value of its market is 8397.50 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.57%, and a year-on-year decrease of 23.53%. Entering August, thanks to the low inventory of raw material n-butanol factories, some maintenance devices are restarting but have not yet shipped, and the spot supply of n-butanol in various places is still tight. However, the profit of butyl acrylate factories continued to maintain a negative growth, and the price of butyl acrylate in the East China market increased significantly in the first week of August, and its value was 4.35% higher than last week to 8765. Yuan/ton level.
In the long run, as the upstream raw material propylene, with the release of new production capacity, the supply of propylene will be abundant in the market, and production companies will have a negative impact on the price of propylene due to the high pressure on shipments. Affected by this, the cost support of acrylic acid continues to weaken. According to Longzhong statistics, the average annual profit of acrylic acid in 2022 is 3650.48 yuan/ton, the average profit in the first seven months of 2023 is 321.28 yuan/ton, and the profit value in July is 181.37 yuan/ton, which is 1120.08% lower than the previous month. , 92.96% lower than the same period last year. For butyl acrylate, the average profit in 2022 is 1926.89 yuan/ton, the average profit in the first seven months of 2023 is 138.54 yuan/ton, and the average profit in July is 323.96 yuan/ton, which is 1361.04% lower than the previous month and 119.31% lower than the same period last year.
August is still in the off-season for consumption, and the load rate of user installations may not change much, and the purchase of raw materials may mainly be kept on bargain hunting. Affected by many factors, we see that in 2023, it may be difficult to effectively and substantially remove acrylic acid and butyl esters, whether it is social inventories or upstream factory warehouses. However, under the low valuation of acrylic acid and butyl ester, some enterprises are not willing to start work, resulting in a lower operating rate than the same period in previous years.
Statistics show that the monthly output of acrylic acid in July was 172,500 tons, a decrease of 10.34% month-on-month and an increase of 5.50% year-on-year. In addition, the value was 7.31% lower than the average value in July before 2023 and 18.24% lower than the average value in 2022. The output of butyl acrylate in July was 139,900 tons, an increase of 7.95% month-on-month and a decrease of 2.51% year-on-year. In addition, the value was 5.26% higher than the average value in July of 2023 and 45.07% lower than the average value in 2022.
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