Styrene maintains a high level and a strong shock, be wary of the risk of a callback
2023/8/1
Pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market rebounded strongly in July. At the end of June, the policy of imposing consumption tax on some refined oil products was introduced, and the price of related oil products rose, which drove the upward trend of pure benzene. In addition, the macro environment in July was relatively strong, crude oil rose, and the commodity atmosphere was generally good. Pure benzene entered the upward channel, especially after the second After the continuous quarterly decline, the market’s intention to raise prices is high. During the month, Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene seven times, with a total increase of 1,250 yuan/ton. In line with the market’s mentality of raising prices, the external markets of pure benzene in Asia have risen synchronously. East China ports continue to destock. Concentrated positives, the short squeeze at the end of the month and the impact of the typhoon further pushed up the price of pure benzene, and the domestic price of pure benzene rose strongly this month. As of July 31, the East China pure benzene market negotiated a reference of 7480-7520 yuan / ton.
Ethylene: In July, the Asian ethylene market rose within a narrow range. Affected by the expected reduction in the volume of ethylene released in August, after the market closed at the end of June, there were multiple transactions in the Asian ethylene market, which boosted the market atmosphere, and the price rose within a narrow range. However, due to the lack of confidence of downstream users in terminal demand and the fact that most derivatives are still in a state of loss, buyers are cautious in accepting goods, and market trading has turned weak again. With the fluctuation of naphtha prices in Asia, the pressure on ethylene costs has increased sharply, and the uncertainty about the direction of the raw material market has made manufacturers cautious in their offers; while downstream buyers are also under the pressure of costs and weak market expectations. The market is mostly based on formula price negotiations, and fixed price negotiations are rarely heard. During the period, the expectation that the rise in U.S. ethane prices may bring about the closure of U.S. ocean-going cargo arbitrage and the reduction in cargo volume also aggravated market concerns. As the demand in August was basically completed, the negotiations in September have not yet started. In the second half of the year, the price of ethylene in Asia fell into a stalemate again after a narrow rise.
In August, the ethylene market may wait and see. The domestic pure benzene market is expected to fluctuate after rising. On the whole, the support for styrene from the cost side may continue, and with the positive macro news and the short-term supply and demand tight balance structure, the raw material side and styrene will maintain high levels and strong fluctuations in the short term, and the medium and long-term need to be vigilant. Sexual callback finishing risk.
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