The supply and demand of methanol is slightly weaker, resulting in a weaker stalemate in the market stage in the second half of the year
2023/8/1
In terms of domestic production, my country's methanol industry started operations at around 69.9% in July, an increase of 1.4 percentage points month-on-month. This month's planned/suspended projects are all involved. Although some restart devices are not running smoothly, the overall return volume during the month has increased month-on-month. As far as domestic methanol supply is concerned in August, it is expected that the overall pace of growth will be maintained; firstly, the restart projects at the end of July and early August are slightly concentrated, such as Jiutaituo County, Changqing, Xin'ao, Kunpeng, Cabele, Zhongxin, Dahua etc. According to the current statistics, the planned maintenance in August is not much, only involving Shilin and Shenmu projects. Secondly, in August, it is still necessary to pay close attention to the load and commissioning pace of new devices such as Inner Mongolia Alashan Humeng Coking, Shanxi Genyang, Inner Mongolia Guangju New Materials and Hualu Hengsheng Jingzhou. Therefore, it is generally expected that the internal supply in August will maintain an incremental performance. In terms of imports, China's methanol imports may have shrunk in July. Due to the stalemate in long-term contract negotiations and periodic typhoon weather in major overseas regions, the overall rhythm of shipments/shipments in June has slowed down; Therefore, it is expected that the import volume of methanol in July may shrink to around 1.25 million tons. As far as imports in August are concerned, it is expected that the overall performance will increase, and the total volume may increase to 1.35-1.37 million tons. The price of methanol in China is at the highest level in the world. The demand in Europe and the United States is still average. At the end of July and the beginning of August, there are about 100,000 tons in the United States. Tons of methanol are gradually arbitraged to the domestic market; in addition, the start of construction in the Middle East and stable shipments also support overall imports.
On the demand side: From the month-on-month comparison of the start-up of methanol downstream in July, the start-up of acetic acid, MTBE, DMF and BDO all increased, while the start-up of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether declined. As far as the demand in August is concerned, the demand for olefins may still shrink. In addition to the impact of Yan’an Nenghua and China Coal Shaanxi Yulin maintenance, it is also concerned about the implementation of the follow-up maintenance of Tianjin MTO and the restart of some port shutdown projects; in addition, 8- In September, pay close attention to the pace of commissioning of Ningxia Baofeng Phase III new project. From the perspective of traditional downstream demand, the increase or decrease of formaldehyde and acetic acid may be limited. Pay attention to the recovery of sheet metal in August on the eve of entering the "Golden Nine"; the demand for MTBE and BDO in August is likely to decrease, and MTBE involves maintenance items. : Lijin, Yantai Wanhua; Lu Shenfa are undergoing maintenance and are expected to restart at the end of August or early September. From the perspective of BDO, Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe plans to conduct annual inspections from July 31 to the end of August. In August, Inner Mongolia Dongjing, Yanchang Petroleum, and Shaanxi Black Cat are all expected to undergo inspections. The Xinjiang Meike plant plans to restart in August. Therefore, Overall BDO start or drop. DMF demand fluctuates or is not big.
In summary, the overall release of the bullish policy at the macro meeting at the end of July is acceptable, and will continue to drive commodity futures and the stock market to a certain extent. However, from a fundamental point of view, the increase in the supply side of China's methanol market in August may be more than the downstream demand Increment, so it is expected that there may be a slight correction in the upward process of market shocks due to the game of supply and demand. However, with the support of low inventories in the upstream production areas most of the time, there is room for the market to move down or be conservative. In terms of supply, the continuation of the high level of imports in August will suppress the absolute price of the port. The return of the mainland near the end of July is concentrated, and the impact of new installations in Northwest China and Shanxi needs to be vigilant; the increase in demand may be limited. Pay attention to the implementation of MTO maintenance in Tianjin, The pace of Baofeng Phase III olefin production has boosted market linkage expectations. In addition, pay attention to the risk of rising freight rates due to poor regional arbitrage of oil products, the rhythm of new long-term contract shipments, and the rhythm of port cargo return.
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