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The international crude oil market performed well, and the core range gradually rose
2023/7/28
Recently, improving supply and demand factors have continued to push up oil prices. International crude oil prices once hit a three-month high. Shanghai crude oil futures also broke through the 600 yuan/barrel mark strongly, bringing crude oil into a bright moment again. Looking ahead, a number of international investment banks said they are optimistic about the performance of oil prices in the second half of the year, and believe that international oil prices are expected to stabilize above $80 per barrel before the end of the year.
The supply and demand side ushered in an improvement
Recently, the performance of the international crude oil market has been remarkable. Wenhua Finance data shows that on July 25, the main contract of Brent crude oil futures reached as high as 83.47 US dollars per barrel, the highest level since April 17; the US West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) reached 79.90 US dollars per barrel, It hit a new high since April 18 this year. As of press time on July 26, the prices of the two varieties have risen by 9.59% and 11.58% since this month.
Looking at the long-term cycle, the current round of rising oil prices has lasted for four weeks. A month ago, the price of WTI crude oil was around $67 per barrel.
"Currently, international oil prices have entered the technical overbought area above the 200-day moving average." Industry insiders said that since August last year, this area has been a key resistance position for international crude oil futures.
"The impact of current geopolitical conflict factors and dollar fluctuations on the crude oil market tends to weaken, and even has a certain degree of reverse impetus, but crude oil prices have bucked the trend and strengthened, indicating strong support from the supply and demand side, and the market expects future demand for crude oil to increase. .” The industry insider said.
When international oil prices soared, Shanghai crude oil futures also strongly broke through the 600 yuan/barrel mark. On July 26, the main intraday continuous contract reached a maximum of 606.2 yuan/barrel, and the last time it broke through this mark was "OPEC+" in April In the context of the unexpected announcement of voluntary production cuts.
A new report from the National Energy Research and Development Center said: "Some signs show that the supply of crude oil market is tight. The rising geopolitical situation has triggered the market's concerns about the supply of bulk commodities. The repeated emphasis of the countries with large production capacity on restricting oil exports has also increased the market's worries. Let oil prices continue to rise sharply and even refresh the high point of this round of rebound, and begin to approach the strong resistance area of the high range in the first half of the year."
It is expected to run stronger in the second half of the year
As oil prices climbed to recent highs, many international investment banks are still optimistic about the performance of oil prices in the second half of the year, and believe that international oil prices are expected to stabilize above US$80 per barrel before the end of the year.
Goldman Sachs Group predicts that as demand reaches a new high in the stage, the crude oil supply gap in the third quarter will be close to 2 million barrels per day, thereby raising the Brent crude oil price forecast from US$80 per barrel to US$86 per barrel by the end of the year.
"The rise in oil prices reflects the impact of production cuts in Saudi Arabia and other countries on the market. The demand for gasoline and aviation fuel has increased in summer, and the market supply is still tightening. The average price in the third quarter may be $83 per barrel." Citigroup said in a statement. pointed out in the report.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, Dong Chao, an analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan Futures, believes that the trend of oil prices mainly depends on three issues: first, the interest rate policies of Europe and the United States. The rhythm of interest rates will also greatly affect the demand for crude oil; the second is the production of countries with large production capacity; the third is US oil production. Currently, the market generally expects that US crude oil production will decline in the second half of the year, and the rate of decline will be crucial to oil prices.
"Compared with the first half of the year, oil prices are facing greater uncertainty. The recovery of demand will determine the upper limit of oil prices. Considering the role of OPEC as a backstop, it is expected that the lower limit of oil prices will be difficult to break through the bottom of the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, the core range of oil prices will gradually increase. Uplift. If the demand in Europe and America recovers, the price is expected to break through the previous high."
The supply and demand side ushered in an improvement
Recently, the performance of the international crude oil market has been remarkable. Wenhua Finance data shows that on July 25, the main contract of Brent crude oil futures reached as high as 83.47 US dollars per barrel, the highest level since April 17; the US West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) reached 79.90 US dollars per barrel, It hit a new high since April 18 this year. As of press time on July 26, the prices of the two varieties have risen by 9.59% and 11.58% since this month.
Looking at the long-term cycle, the current round of rising oil prices has lasted for four weeks. A month ago, the price of WTI crude oil was around $67 per barrel.
"Currently, international oil prices have entered the technical overbought area above the 200-day moving average." Industry insiders said that since August last year, this area has been a key resistance position for international crude oil futures.
"The impact of current geopolitical conflict factors and dollar fluctuations on the crude oil market tends to weaken, and even has a certain degree of reverse impetus, but crude oil prices have bucked the trend and strengthened, indicating strong support from the supply and demand side, and the market expects future demand for crude oil to increase. .” The industry insider said.
When international oil prices soared, Shanghai crude oil futures also strongly broke through the 600 yuan/barrel mark. On July 26, the main intraday continuous contract reached a maximum of 606.2 yuan/barrel, and the last time it broke through this mark was "OPEC+" in April In the context of the unexpected announcement of voluntary production cuts.
A new report from the National Energy Research and Development Center said: "Some signs show that the supply of crude oil market is tight. The rising geopolitical situation has triggered the market's concerns about the supply of bulk commodities. The repeated emphasis of the countries with large production capacity on restricting oil exports has also increased the market's worries. Let oil prices continue to rise sharply and even refresh the high point of this round of rebound, and begin to approach the strong resistance area of the high range in the first half of the year."
It is expected to run stronger in the second half of the year
As oil prices climbed to recent highs, many international investment banks are still optimistic about the performance of oil prices in the second half of the year, and believe that international oil prices are expected to stabilize above US$80 per barrel before the end of the year.
Goldman Sachs Group predicts that as demand reaches a new high in the stage, the crude oil supply gap in the third quarter will be close to 2 million barrels per day, thereby raising the Brent crude oil price forecast from US$80 per barrel to US$86 per barrel by the end of the year.
"The rise in oil prices reflects the impact of production cuts in Saudi Arabia and other countries on the market. The demand for gasoline and aviation fuel has increased in summer, and the market supply is still tightening. The average price in the third quarter may be $83 per barrel." Citigroup said in a statement. pointed out in the report.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, Dong Chao, an analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan Futures, believes that the trend of oil prices mainly depends on three issues: first, the interest rate policies of Europe and the United States. The rhythm of interest rates will also greatly affect the demand for crude oil; the second is the production of countries with large production capacity; the third is US oil production. Currently, the market generally expects that US crude oil production will decline in the second half of the year, and the rate of decline will be crucial to oil prices.
"Compared with the first half of the year, oil prices are facing greater uncertainty. The recovery of demand will determine the upper limit of oil prices. Considering the role of OPEC as a backstop, it is expected that the lower limit of oil prices will be difficult to break through the bottom of the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, the core range of oil prices will gradually increase. Uplift. If the demand in Europe and America recovers, the price is expected to break through the previous high."
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