In the second half of the year, my country's electricity consumption is expected to grow at a medium to high speed
2023/7/26
Experts from the China Electricity Council said in an interview that electricity consumption is expected to achieve medium-to-high speed growth in the second half of the year, and it is still necessary to pay close attention to the operating situation of coal power enterprises.
Economic Recovery Stimulates Electricity Consumption Growth
The "Report" shows that in the first half of this year, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 4.31 trillion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, and the growth rate was 2.1 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. improve. In terms of quarters, the electricity consumption of the whole society in the first and second quarters increased by 3.6% and 6.4% year-on-year respectively; the two-year average growth rates in the first and second quarters were 5.0% and 4.3% respectively.
Comprehensively considering factors such as the macro economy, summer temperature, and the base of the previous year, according to the forecast results of the electricity consumption of the whole society based on different forecasting methods, and combined with the predictions of power supply and demand situation analysis and forecasting experts, the "Report" predicts that in 2023, the whole society will Electricity consumption was 9.15 trillion kwh, an increase of about 6% year-on-year, of which the electricity consumption of the whole society in the second half of the year increased by 6% to 7% year-on-year.
Jiang Debin, deputy director of the Statistics and Data Center of the China Electricity Council, said that in terms of industry and major industries, in terms of the primary industry, the comprehensive promotion of the rural revitalization strategy, the obvious improvement in rural electricity conditions in recent years, and the continuous improvement of the electrification level will drive the next generation. In the first half of the year, the power consumption of the primary industry continued its rapid growth momentum. In terms of the secondary industry, it is expected that the growth rate of electricity consumption in the high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry will continue to lead, and the growth rate of the consumer goods manufacturing industry will further pick up. Medium-to-low growth will be maintained. According to the overall judgment, it is expected that the electricity consumption of the secondary industry will increase by about 5% year-on-year in the second half of the year. In terms of the tertiary industry, the service industry has continued its rapid growth momentum, and superimposed on the low base formed by the epidemic last year, it is expected that the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry will grow by more than 13% year-on-year in the second half of the year. In addition, due to the high base factor of the same period last year, it is expected that the electricity consumption of residents will grow at a medium-to-low rate in the second half of this year.
The scale of new power generation installed capacity is expected to break through history
The "Report" shows that in the first half of the year, the country's new power generation installed capacity was 140 million kilowatts; as of the end of June 2023, the national full-scale power generation installed capacity was 2.71 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%. From the perspective of investment by type, growth rate of installed capacity of power generation and structural changes, the power industry continues the trend of green and low-carbon transformation.
Driven by the rapid development of new energy power generation, the "Report" predicts that in 2023, the scale of newly installed power generation capacity nationwide is expected to exceed 300 million kilowatts for the first time in history, of which the newly installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation will exceed 230 million kilowatts. By the end of 2023, the national power generation installed capacity is expected to reach 2.86 billion kilowatts, an increase of about 11.5% year-on-year. The total installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation was 1.51 billion kilowatts, accounting for about 53% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 3 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, 420 million kilowatts of hydropower, 430 million kilowatts of grid-connected wind power, 530 million kilowatts of grid-connected solar power, 58.46 million kilowatts of nuclear power, and about 45 million kilowatts of biomass power generation. By the end of 2023, the total installed capacity of grid-connected wind power and solar power will reach 960 million kilowatts, accounting for one-third of the total installed capacity, an increase of about 4 percentage points year-on-year.
However, Zhang Jingjie, deputy director of the Planning and Development Department of the China Electricity Council, said in an interview with a reporter from the Shanghai Securities News that new energy has continued to develop rapidly in recent years, but its inherent randomness, volatility, and intermittent characteristics make a high proportion connected to the power system. After that, increase the system regulation pressure. In addition, some places are affected by meteorological aspects such as incoming water and temperature, and the power consumption is in short supply. There is an urgent need to organically integrate various regulation resources of sources, networks, loads, and storage to provide support for the continuous and stable operation of the system. From the perspective of the supply side, it is necessary to properly develop coal power projects to ensure the safe supply of electricity; from the perspective of the power grid, it is necessary to strengthen the construction of grid structures and improve the ability to optimize the allocation of resources in a large scale; Promote the transformation from "the source moves with the load" to "the source and the load interact".
It is still necessary to pay close attention to the operation situation of coal power enterprises
Since the beginning of this year, coal prices have fluctuated and dropped, and the cost pressure of coal power enterprises has declined. However, according to the actual research situation of experts from the China Electricity Council, it is still necessary to pay close attention to the operating situation of coal power enterprises.
"According to statistics, from January to May this year, the total profit of the coal power sector of the four major groups suffered a total loss of 8.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.6 billion yuan compared with the same period of the previous year, and the loss of coal power enterprises was 56.5%." Zhang Jingjie said. At the same time, the relevant policies jointly issued by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation to further increase the implementation of end-of-period value-added tax refunds for electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries have expired at the end of 2022. The channel for providing financial support to electricity companies has also been closed at the end of March 2023. Moreover, due to the high asset-liability ratio of coal power enterprises, it is difficult to obtain bank credit, financing difficulties, and the problems of rising financing costs still exist.
Han Fang, deputy director of the Planning and Development Department of the China Electricity Council, said that about 50% of large power generation groups are losing money on coal power, and some large power generation groups are still losing money as a whole. One is that the current power plant fuel supply is mainly based on Changxie coal, and the pricing mechanism of Changxie coal determines that its price is not greatly affected by market prices. In addition, according to research, the pricing of long-term coal for land transport is the upper limit of the reasonable range defined by the government, and has not fluctuated with the spot price. The current round of coal market price correction has improved the operating conditions of thermal power companies far less than that of the northern port market. Price fluctuations; second, the current spot price in the market is still higher than the capacity of thermal power enterprises, and since July, the market price has fluctuated and risen again, which is close to the level at the beginning of June; third, there is still room for the implementation of the market-oriented reform policy of coal machine on-grid electricity price , especially in the implementation of "high-energy-consuming enterprise market transaction price is not restricted by 20% increase", the situation of insufficient implementation in various places is more common.
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