Syrup imports in the domestic market exceeded expectations, and beet sugar was "crowded out"
2023/7/25
According to the latest data from the Brazilian Sugar Industry Association UNICA, the 2023/24 crushing season has officially started. As of the second half of June 2022, Gansu's cumulative crushing volume is 209.788 million tons, and Brazil is currently crushing smoothly. During the statistical period, the biweekly crushing volume totaled 43.003 million tons, and the sugar output was 2.695 million tons. Brazil's cumulative sugar production in this crushing season was 12.228 million tons.
In the past 14 days, Brazil's production areas have been dry, and there has been no large-scale precipitation in Brazil recently, which is conducive to crushing. The sugar mills are progressing smoothly and the tight supply has been eased.
Sugar consumption gradually recovers
In the 2022/23 sugar production period, as of July 24, the cumulative sales of sugar in this crushing season across the country was 6.88 million tons, an increase of 870,000 tons year-on-year, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 76.70%, an increase of 13.83 percentage points year-on-year.
At present, the domestic sugar market is in a pure sales period. Imported raw sugar has arrived in Hong Kong one after another, and the operating rate of processing sugar factories has increased. The supply of sugar has increased. However, due to factors such as the domestic epidemic situation, consumption has recovered, the economy has recovered, and demand has gradually increased. However, the demand for white sugar has not yet fully recovered, and the destocking speed is slow.
Syrup imports exceed expectations, beet sugar stockpiles
On the domestic front, the main contract of Zheng Sugar showed a fluctuating trend last week as a whole. At first, due to the suppression of speculation by Zhengshang and the retracement of raw sugar, Zheng Sugar dropped.
However, the domestic spot goods are strong, and the external market rebounded slightly, but sugar imports tend to increase in volume. Secondly, there is a big problem with the accumulation of beet sugar in the warehouse receipts, and the market is mainly volatile. In the end, the weekly line closed up. Among them, the main contract of Zheng sugar closed down by 131 yuan/ton, or -1.89%, and the closing price was 6784 yuan/ton.
According to the current statistics, the hard gap before September is about 1 million tons. Whether the syrup is in large volume and the speed of destocking during the peak season is the decisive condition for triggering the market.
Looking ahead, Brazil's selling pressure still exists, while India's flood disaster has been judged to have limited impact, and domestic supply is generally tight. Brazil's crushing has reached its peak and is still accelerating. The rapid increase in supply has put pressure on the periodic trend of international sugar prices. In the short term, the trend of sugar prices will still be under the pressure brought about by the acceleration of Brazil's crushing, and the upward space is limited. Follow-up needs to continue to pay attention to the weather conditions. On the premise that there is no problem with the weather, waiting for the sugar pricing center to move to the northern hemisphere is the new speculation window.
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