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It is expected that the domestic methanol futures to maintain a strong pattern in the market will operate
2023/7/14
Under the dual effects of the El Nino phenomenon and the effect of greenhouse effects, the summer high temperature in the northern hemisphere allows Iranian to raise prices and transfer to power plants. It not only increases the cost of gas methanol, but also weakens the supply of raw materials, which tighten the output of external methanol. At the same time, the peak of domestic peak summer coal consumption is coming, and it is expected to be increased by coal consumption. The price of coal futures has stabilized and rebounded, and the cost of coal -made methanol has rebounded.
Against the background of cost logic, the domestic methanol 2309 contract bottomed out this week and stabilized. It exceeded the 60 -day moving average. The futures price rose to the first line of 2280 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 5.52%.
In summer, high temperature weather is coming, civilian crowded industrial electricity
After the three -year La Nina phenomenon, the Elnino phenomenon was completed in May this year to complete the "protagonist" switch. The World Meteorological Organization announced on July 4 that the tropical Pacific region for the first time for the first time in El Nino, it is expected that the temperature in most parts of the world will rise further in the future. In addition, the World Meteorological Organization predicts that the El Nino incident will occur between July and September and the possibility of continuing until the end of the year will be 90%. In the next 5 years, there is a probability that it will record extreme high temperatures. Under the "pinch" of the El Nino phenomenon and the greenhouse effect, the summer of the northern hemisphere this year is likely to be "hot".
The hot summer high temperature is undoubtedly a huge test for Iran. According to meteorological forecasts, in the next 7 days, the temperature in the Tehran area in Iran will rise to more than 40 degrees Celsius. In the past 10 years, the continuous temperature rise and the significant decrease in rainfall in the country have made Iran's power supply in the summer of the summer electricity use, facing a large power supply gap. As a last resort, the Iranian government has recently planned to raise prices for natural gas and transfer industrial natural gas to power plants to alleviate the embarrassment of insufficient power supply. Under the premise of the priority protection of residents, natural gas production of methanol industrial power is cut, some devices are limited to production, and raw material supply is also facing shortage.
Iran is rich in natural gas resources, and gas -based methanol is the top
As the fifth largest oil producer of OPEC and the third major natural gas producer in the world (second only to the United States and Russia), Iran has huge proven oil and gas reserves. The world's largest natural gas field-the total area of the northern-South Pas oil field is about 9,700 square kilometers, of which 3700 square kilometers in the north are located in the Iranian waters and are known as the South Pas gas field. Known as the northern gas field. The South Parus gas field is the largest natural gas field in Iran, accounting for nearly 40%of Iran's total reserves. The daily output of South Parus gas fields reached 630 million cubic meters, with an annual output of more than 200 billion cubic meters. South Parus accounts for nearly 70%of the total natural gas consumption in Iran.
The Iranian methanol factory is mostly located in the southwest, cities along the Persian Gulf, near the South Parus gas field, and the supply of gas sources also derives from this. Because of the unique resource endowment, Iran's methanol production capacity has ushered in explosive growth in the past 5 years, and the annual average production capacity investment growth is as high as 36%. The current scale of methanol capacity of Iranian methanol has been 13.86 million tons. According to statistics, in 2022, China imported 2.12 million tons of methanol from Iran, while Iran's 2022 methanol output was 9.77 million tons, export volume of more than 8.8 million tons, and China's imports accounted for 21.69%of its total output. Coupled with the number of other countries to China to China, Iran is expected to import Iran's methanol more than 40%of its total output.
The external supply is tightened under production restriction, and the changes in import volume are concerned
According to previous experience, in the winter, the Iranian government will restrict the supply of its domestic natural gas, mainly in order to protect people's livelihood, prioritize civilian needs, and take certain production restrictions on natural gas methanol devices. Therefore, the Iranian methanol device is more than December to January of the following year (it has a greater relationship with the temperature), which has a greater impact on the import of methanol from January to February of China. The Iranian air limit cycle is generally 1-2 months, and the device restarts in February to March of the following year. Therefore, in the context of the Ulinino phenomenon that triggered the rise in the temperature of the northern hemisphere and the severe high temperature in summer, the Iranian government adopted the air limit to protect the people's livelihood, and the measures to restrict the production of gas -based methanol devices have a certain rationality. The market outlook still needs to pay attention to the parking situation of Iran's device. If multiple sets of device parking occurs in the subsequent Iran, methanol imports may decline significantly.
Against the background of cost logic, the domestic methanol 2309 contract bottomed out this week and stabilized. It exceeded the 60 -day moving average. The futures price rose to the first line of 2280 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 5.52%.
In summer, high temperature weather is coming, civilian crowded industrial electricity
After the three -year La Nina phenomenon, the Elnino phenomenon was completed in May this year to complete the "protagonist" switch. The World Meteorological Organization announced on July 4 that the tropical Pacific region for the first time for the first time in El Nino, it is expected that the temperature in most parts of the world will rise further in the future. In addition, the World Meteorological Organization predicts that the El Nino incident will occur between July and September and the possibility of continuing until the end of the year will be 90%. In the next 5 years, there is a probability that it will record extreme high temperatures. Under the "pinch" of the El Nino phenomenon and the greenhouse effect, the summer of the northern hemisphere this year is likely to be "hot".
The hot summer high temperature is undoubtedly a huge test for Iran. According to meteorological forecasts, in the next 7 days, the temperature in the Tehran area in Iran will rise to more than 40 degrees Celsius. In the past 10 years, the continuous temperature rise and the significant decrease in rainfall in the country have made Iran's power supply in the summer of the summer electricity use, facing a large power supply gap. As a last resort, the Iranian government has recently planned to raise prices for natural gas and transfer industrial natural gas to power plants to alleviate the embarrassment of insufficient power supply. Under the premise of the priority protection of residents, natural gas production of methanol industrial power is cut, some devices are limited to production, and raw material supply is also facing shortage.
Iran is rich in natural gas resources, and gas -based methanol is the top
As the fifth largest oil producer of OPEC and the third major natural gas producer in the world (second only to the United States and Russia), Iran has huge proven oil and gas reserves. The world's largest natural gas field-the total area of the northern-South Pas oil field is about 9,700 square kilometers, of which 3700 square kilometers in the north are located in the Iranian waters and are known as the South Pas gas field. Known as the northern gas field. The South Parus gas field is the largest natural gas field in Iran, accounting for nearly 40%of Iran's total reserves. The daily output of South Parus gas fields reached 630 million cubic meters, with an annual output of more than 200 billion cubic meters. South Parus accounts for nearly 70%of the total natural gas consumption in Iran.
The Iranian methanol factory is mostly located in the southwest, cities along the Persian Gulf, near the South Parus gas field, and the supply of gas sources also derives from this. Because of the unique resource endowment, Iran's methanol production capacity has ushered in explosive growth in the past 5 years, and the annual average production capacity investment growth is as high as 36%. The current scale of methanol capacity of Iranian methanol has been 13.86 million tons. According to statistics, in 2022, China imported 2.12 million tons of methanol from Iran, while Iran's 2022 methanol output was 9.77 million tons, export volume of more than 8.8 million tons, and China's imports accounted for 21.69%of its total output. Coupled with the number of other countries to China to China, Iran is expected to import Iran's methanol more than 40%of its total output.
The external supply is tightened under production restriction, and the changes in import volume are concerned
According to previous experience, in the winter, the Iranian government will restrict the supply of its domestic natural gas, mainly in order to protect people's livelihood, prioritize civilian needs, and take certain production restrictions on natural gas methanol devices. Therefore, the Iranian methanol device is more than December to January of the following year (it has a greater relationship with the temperature), which has a greater impact on the import of methanol from January to February of China. The Iranian air limit cycle is generally 1-2 months, and the device restarts in February to March of the following year. Therefore, in the context of the Ulinino phenomenon that triggered the rise in the temperature of the northern hemisphere and the severe high temperature in summer, the Iranian government adopted the air limit to protect the people's livelihood, and the measures to restrict the production of gas -based methanol devices have a certain rationality. The market outlook still needs to pay attention to the parking situation of Iran's device. If multiple sets of device parking occurs in the subsequent Iran, methanol imports may decline significantly.
In summary, global climate change is profoundly affecting the energy supply structure. In the background of high temperature in summer, the demand for power has increased significantly, which will lead to rising energy prices such as natural gas and coal, and the crowded industrial demand will also weaken the supply of methanol. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2309 contract will be operated with a strong pattern.
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