Demand off-season aluminum market supply and demand pattern from tight balance to relaxed
2023/7/6
"Due to the early Yunnan in the dry period, the lack of hydropower supply, resulting in the region's new production capacity is difficult to put, the total operating capacity decline. Later in the second quarter, as the abundant water period is approaching, the running capacity has improved, but the rhythm of resuming production is still slow." Melia futures industry research center non-ferrous metals team leader Wang Yanhong said, demand, the domestic economy is in a weak recovery, aluminum bar, aluminum inventory is high, the terminal consumption is not good also led to the accumulation of finished goods inventory, but the consumption off-season is coming, this weak demand state short-term difficult to improve.
According to Guohai Liangshi futures non-ferrous metal analysts Wang Chenxi and Chen Yi, with the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production in Yunnan area landed, the annual view of electrolytic aluminum production or increase of 2%-3% year-on-year.
"From the supply side, the general environment of water shortage in the southwest has improved significantly, the biggest variable of Yunnan area has stepped into the process of resumption of production, the current production profit is close to 2600 yuan / ton high also decided the aluminum plant will not take the initiative to reduce production, the certainty of supply growth is greater. From the demand side, real estate completion year-on-year is still at a high level, but the chain of decline, 'to protect the delivery of buildings' favorable policy release gradually fade, the car also in the beginning of the year in the tide of price cuts in advance of the release of part of the demand, now into the off-season, although consumption is also expected to usher in the 'golden nine silver ten 's seasonal repair, but there will not be a super-seasonal performance." Wang Chenxi and Chen Yi said.
"Overall, the domestic aluminum market is in a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. On the one hand, since late June, Yunnan area production cut electrolytic aluminum gradually into the resumption phase, is expected to the end of August electrolytic aluminum resumption capacity of about 1.3 million tons, Yunnan Province, electrolytic aluminum operating capacity or repair to about 4.6 million tons. On the other hand, downstream demand in the traditional off-season, as of the end of June, aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises weekly start rate fell back to 63.8%, compared with the same period last year, 2.7 percentage points lower, the off-season atmosphere under the grip of corporate orders is not optimistic." Centaline Futures industrial metal group leader Liu Peiyang said.
However, the reporter noted that the current social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to de-stocking, has been at a historically low level. As of July 3, the social inventory of aluminum ingots is 506,000 tons, 16,000 tons less than last Thursday. "This is mainly due to the rise in the proportion of aluminum plant aluminum water, the amount of cast ingots fell. Because of the previous shutdown in the southwest, the downstream had to purchase ingots from the surrounding social stock to maintain production, forming a situation where the social stock of ingots is at a low level but continues to go to storage. It is expected that with the resumption of production in the southwest, the proportion of aluminum water decreases, and the rate of aluminum ingots to depot will gradually slow down after turning to tired depot." Wang Chenxi and Chen Yi analysis said.
From the perspective of inventory seasonality, Wang Yanhong said, the absolute value of aluminum ingot social inventory is on the low side, the supply side contraction in the early period overlaid with downstream replenishment makes the social circulable inventory decrease, downstream raw material inventory and terminal finished goods inventory increase.
After entering the third quarter, the variables of the supply-side increase is not large, aluminum prices will be demand-side as the anchor to start fluctuations. "From the medium and long-term trend, with the domestic 'double carbon' target set, and the resulting derived from the various energy-saving emission reduction policies, domestic electrolytic aluminum 45 million tons of production capacity 'ceiling' has become the market consensus, the current total construction Production capacity of 99%, the elasticity of the future internal supply side is limited. However, the elasticity of the demand side is greater, the conflict is also relatively complex, with the real estate chain-based aluminum consumption by the impact, but special high voltage, automotive, new energy field is still accelerating the replacement and make up for the lack of demand, demand and demand is expected to change will dominate the overall trend of aluminum prices." Wang Yanhong believes.
In the view of Wang Chenxi and Chen Yi, in the current situation of high profits, failed to observe the signs of active production reduction on the supply side, compared to the demand side tends to be more stable, the oversupply of aluminum prices continue to exert pressure, while the demand side of the over-expected recovery will be the key to dominate the trend of aluminum prices. On the one hand, the market is still looking forward to policy factors to promote the real estate rebound, new construction and construction area than the ring increase also means that there is positive conduction to the construction side; on the other hand, "gold nine silver ten" there is seasonal repair is expected. "In the background of double expected superposition, aluminum prices can break through the operating range upward also depends on the demand side how to force."
Liu Peiyang also think, aluminum prices in the future how to run, the focus is on the policy side can pull on the downstream demand. Specifically, in late July, the market will focus on the domestic release of policy signals and overseas whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again.
Recently, relevant departments issued a notice on "Energy Efficiency Benchmarking Levels and Benchmarking Levels in Key Areas of Industry (2023 Edition)" to further expand the scope of energy-saving and carbon-reducing renovation and upgrading in key areas of industry. According to the reporter's understanding, the electrolytic aluminum industry has been a key industry for energy saving and carbon reduction due to its high energy consumption, which has previously been reflected in the relevant notice.
Wang Yanhong said that the notice will make the electrolytic aluminum production capacity "ceiling" again to strengthen, as well as new capacity to put the approval tightened, smelting capacity north aluminum south, hydropower aluminum replacement of the general direction has not changed. Short-term impact on aluminum prices is limited, medium and long-term still need to pay attention to the energy consumption target control policy strength on the stage of supply caused by the impact.
Talking about the impact of the notice on the electrolytic aluminum industry, Liu Peiyang believes that one is to improve the industry access threshold and accelerate the withdrawal of inefficient production capacity; second, the proportion of power generation relying on thermal power will decline, while the proportion of power generation relying on renewable energy will be enhanced; third, the proportion of recycled aluminum production is expected to increase; fourth, low-carbon aluminum will be recognized by the market, enterprises are expected to launch more low-carbon aluminum brand.
"Electrolytic aluminum has been a high pollution, high energy-consuming industries, since the set capacity ceiling, electrolytic aluminum production capacity will step into the era of only replacement, not new. This further expansion of industrial key areas of energy saving and carbon reduction transformation and upgrading scope also covers the electrolytic aluminum, means that the development of hydropower aluminum, clean aluminum, green aluminum was played a 'strong needle', the first embodiment of the main production areas of change. First, at present in Shandong, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other northern areas are still using traditional thermal power production of electrolytic aluminum, as the policy continues to be implemented, will gradually move to the southwest using hydropower areas, from the root of the problem of high carbon emissions. Secondly, it will upgrade technology within the industry sector, promote the development of low-carbon smelting technology, reduce electricity consumption, accelerate the elimination of disorderly, backward production capacity, and promote industrial upgrading. However, in this process, due to capacity replacement, technical reform all need some time, short-term supply or decline, forming a tight supply situation. In the long run, hydropower and low electricity consumption will bring down the cost end, aluminum price pivot or move down with it." Wang Chenxi and Chen Yi said.
JIN DUN CHEMICAL has built a special (meth) acrylic monomer manufacturing base in ZHEJIANG province. This makes sure the stable supply of HEMA, HPMA, HEA, HPA, GMA with high level quality. Our special acrylate monomers are widely used for thermosetting acrylic resins, crosslinkable emulsion polymers, acrylate anaerobic adhesive, two-component acrylate adhesive, solvent acrylate adhesive, emulsion acrylate adhesive, paper finishing agent and painting acrylic resins in adhesive.We have also developed the new and special (meth) acrylic monomers and derivatives. Such as the fluorinated acrylate monomers, It can be widely used in coating leveling agent, paints, inks, photosensitive resins, optical materials, fiber treatment, modifier for plastic or rubber field. We are aiming to be the top supplier in the field of special acrylate monomers, to share our rich experience with better quality products and professional service.
