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Pure benzene: bottoming out and stabilizing, the future market can be expected
2023/7/6
The domestic pure benzene market, which has experienced nearly two months of decline, began to bottom out and stabilize in late June, with some areas showing signs of bottoming out. As of June 25, the listing price of pure benzene around Sinopec showed 6200 yuan (ton price, the same below), down 16% in two months, hitting a new low in the year. Industry insiders believe that the probability of pure benzene bottoming out and stabilizing at present is higher, and the market is still promising in the second half of the year.
"Since the second quarter of this year, pure benzene in the process of supply and demand game down momentum has been released, the market has also successively stopped and stabilized. Expected pure benzene price stage low is expected to form, the market can be expected." Henan traders Yan Shaoqi said so.
Demand support to stop falling and stabilize
According to the information statistics of ChemNet Henan, as of June 25, pure benzene downstream industry chain in addition to phenol is still in the loss state, other products such as styrene, aniline, caprolactam, adipic acid ton profit level of 120 yuan, 3,500 yuan, 180 yuan, 180 yuan, in a profitable state, especially raw material demand accounted for a large proportion of styrene products in June began to turn from the original slight loss to Profit, the pure benzene market has a strong support, which is the main reason why the recent pure benzene market stopped falling and stabilized.
Yan Shaoqi said, in the current pure benzene downstream market on the basis of relative stability, the industry chain products in the domestic market performance is relatively good, so the downstream enterprises production enthusiasm is also high. Since the second half of June, the transaction atmosphere around the obvious improvement, low-priced sources of goods have been reduced. In recent years, as the proportion of traders involved in the pure benzene market has gradually decreased, the speculative nature is also greatly reduced. Once the market bottomed out and stabilized, the demand changes of pure benzene downstream enterprises will be the key indicator leading the market direction.
Supply and demand balance bottoming is expected
Data show that the pure benzene downstream product chain, such as styrene, phenol, aniline, caprolactam, adipic acid and other products in the same period, the comprehensive start-up rate of 67.8%, 69%, 76.5%, 72.5%, 69%. "From the recent upstream and downstream starts, pure benzene supply and demand are basically in a new balance, which is another important factor for the market to stop falling and stabilize. In addition, the port inventory of pure benzene also showed a steady decline, indicating that domestic demand has growth momentum, and the bottoming out of the pure benzene market may be expected to rebound." said Li Peixin, purchasing director of Jiangsu Dipu Technology Co.
Sinopec a sales manager said that the current pure benzene downstream most of the product profit overall show repair state, mainly due to the decline in the price of pure benzene, so as to the downstream product concessions. In the current transaction price, pure benzene supply and demand is basically balanced, and even demand is strong, which can be seen from the change of market mentality before the Dragon Boat Festival. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, the proportion of bearish post-market occupies more than 50%, and the proportion of bullish only accounts for about 30%, while the proportion of stable warm post-market after the festival has turned to more than 50%.
No difference between domestic and foreign support market stabilization
Port market information shows that June 15 to 21, the average price of imported pure benzene CFR China to $777 / ton; June 27, CFR China average price of $752.5 / ton, equivalent to RMB 6254 yuan. Thus, it seems that there is basically no difference in the price of pure benzene inside and outside the market, and even most of the domestic enterprises' factory prices have been lower than the import prices.
"In the background of the domestic and foreign plate basically no much difference in price, although some enterprises still have a small reduction in the price of pure benzene, the price of imported supplies to the domestic market will form a strong support, the price of pure benzene again a significant decline in space is not much, the recent bottoming out of the pure benzene market stabilization, the probability of rebound pending." Shao Huiwen, a senior market commentator, said so.
Industry analysis, it is the key moment of the market's long and short game. Asian demand growth is expected, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decline, OPEC + production cuts and other factors will be pure benzene stabilization market, bottoming, repair the formation of the basis of good. However, the global economic slowdown still inhibits downstream demand, despite signs of increased supply from Iran and Russia, but do not rule out the possibility that the price of imported goods again downward and other factors will also inhibit the market repair recovery process, is expected in the short term pure benzene market will be based on bottoming repair.
"Since the second quarter of this year, pure benzene in the process of supply and demand game down momentum has been released, the market has also successively stopped and stabilized. Expected pure benzene price stage low is expected to form, the market can be expected." Henan traders Yan Shaoqi said so.
Demand support to stop falling and stabilize
According to the information statistics of ChemNet Henan, as of June 25, pure benzene downstream industry chain in addition to phenol is still in the loss state, other products such as styrene, aniline, caprolactam, adipic acid ton profit level of 120 yuan, 3,500 yuan, 180 yuan, 180 yuan, in a profitable state, especially raw material demand accounted for a large proportion of styrene products in June began to turn from the original slight loss to Profit, the pure benzene market has a strong support, which is the main reason why the recent pure benzene market stopped falling and stabilized.
Yan Shaoqi said, in the current pure benzene downstream market on the basis of relative stability, the industry chain products in the domestic market performance is relatively good, so the downstream enterprises production enthusiasm is also high. Since the second half of June, the transaction atmosphere around the obvious improvement, low-priced sources of goods have been reduced. In recent years, as the proportion of traders involved in the pure benzene market has gradually decreased, the speculative nature is also greatly reduced. Once the market bottomed out and stabilized, the demand changes of pure benzene downstream enterprises will be the key indicator leading the market direction.
Supply and demand balance bottoming is expected
Data show that the pure benzene downstream product chain, such as styrene, phenol, aniline, caprolactam, adipic acid and other products in the same period, the comprehensive start-up rate of 67.8%, 69%, 76.5%, 72.5%, 69%. "From the recent upstream and downstream starts, pure benzene supply and demand are basically in a new balance, which is another important factor for the market to stop falling and stabilize. In addition, the port inventory of pure benzene also showed a steady decline, indicating that domestic demand has growth momentum, and the bottoming out of the pure benzene market may be expected to rebound." said Li Peixin, purchasing director of Jiangsu Dipu Technology Co.
Sinopec a sales manager said that the current pure benzene downstream most of the product profit overall show repair state, mainly due to the decline in the price of pure benzene, so as to the downstream product concessions. In the current transaction price, pure benzene supply and demand is basically balanced, and even demand is strong, which can be seen from the change of market mentality before the Dragon Boat Festival. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, the proportion of bearish post-market occupies more than 50%, and the proportion of bullish only accounts for about 30%, while the proportion of stable warm post-market after the festival has turned to more than 50%.
No difference between domestic and foreign support market stabilization
Port market information shows that June 15 to 21, the average price of imported pure benzene CFR China to $777 / ton; June 27, CFR China average price of $752.5 / ton, equivalent to RMB 6254 yuan. Thus, it seems that there is basically no difference in the price of pure benzene inside and outside the market, and even most of the domestic enterprises' factory prices have been lower than the import prices.
"In the background of the domestic and foreign plate basically no much difference in price, although some enterprises still have a small reduction in the price of pure benzene, the price of imported supplies to the domestic market will form a strong support, the price of pure benzene again a significant decline in space is not much, the recent bottoming out of the pure benzene market stabilization, the probability of rebound pending." Shao Huiwen, a senior market commentator, said so.
Industry analysis, it is the key moment of the market's long and short game. Asian demand growth is expected, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decline, OPEC + production cuts and other factors will be pure benzene stabilization market, bottoming, repair the formation of the basis of good. However, the global economic slowdown still inhibits downstream demand, despite signs of increased supply from Iran and Russia, but do not rule out the possibility that the price of imported goods again downward and other factors will also inhibit the market repair recovery process, is expected in the short term pure benzene market will be based on bottoming repair.
It is recommended to actively pay attention to the start-up rate of pure benzene downstream devices, changes in foreign prices and domestic inventory consumption and other factors, adjust the raw material procurement strategy in real time, control inventory, grasp the rhythm of the market, and avoid market risks.
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