Silicone out of the trough still need time
2023/7/3
Rebound resistance is heavy
Lonzhong information analyst Liu Hao said, silicones after a sustained decline in the previous period, the bottom near 14,000 yuan grinding has been nearly a month, during the market also appeared to rebound, but then smashed by the short.
Supply increase is one of the important factors in the silicone market fall. Looking back at the market in the first quarter, Xinjiang Hesheng Shanshan three annual output of 200,000 tons of mass production of the device, Hengxing Technology device to start, the market supply increased significantly, the contradiction between supply and demand continues to amplify, prices have gone down significantly. The overall average price was around 16,600 yuan, down about 57.24% compared with the first quarter of 2022 and down about 48.49% from the fourth quarter of 2022.
Since then, manufacturers have increased their own consumption by reducing the load, low-priced inward rolls or extending downstream; downstream orders from large and medium-sized enterprises are more stable, but the growth rate is less than expected; and small enterprises have reduced their start-up rate significantly, with a pessimistic mentality and negative market entry, resulting in a market trading atmosphere that has been muted.
From the viewpoint of the start-up rate, since late June, the start-up rate of 13 domestic DMC sample enterprises is 55.67%, which is slightly lower than before. At present, Dongyue a device, Hengye into the device, Xin'an Zhenjiang and Jiangxi Xinghuo device to maintain the parking state, Hengxing device to resume one after another, the rest of the device normal operation.
After the market, previously postponed the start of the plant in order to maintain the core customers, hold market share and prevent parking to bring greater losses, will resume work later, the supply side is still expected to increase. Starfire, Hengxing and Hengye Cheng manufacturers are expected to start work in the near future, the silicone start rate may be pulled up to 71.69%, the supply increase so that the silicone market does not have the basis for a significant rebound.
Cost support is not enough
Goldlink analysts said, raw material prices fell sharply, although it is difficult to support the strength of the silicone market, but the cost side will reduce the pressure on enterprises. Looking back at this year's silicone market, April raw material silicon metal prices fell 800 ~ 1,000 yuan, Shandong region, a chloromethane prices fell 550 yuan during the month. At this time, most of the silicone plant profits upside down. May raw material silicon metal prices continue to fall, down 1300 ~ 2000 yuan during the month; Shandong region, a chloromethane price range oscillation, up 550 yuan during the month, the transaction price more concentrated in 2450 yuan.
Raw material end of silicon metal 421 # prices are still continuing to fall, the current market mainstream transaction price of 13,700 ~ 13,950,000 yuan. Monochloromethane prices have stabilized since entering June, with the current transaction price in Shandong at 2,500 yuan.
Into June, with the cost side of the pressure continues to reduce, organosilicon profitability has improved, the current profit margin is close to 450 yuan.
After the market, the raw material side of the silicon metal 421 # because of the weak demand in the early days, the accumulation of inventory led to a decline in the furnace rate, tightening supply, the price will have an upward trend in the short term, has been suppressed for a long time after the market pushed up will drive a wave of consumption climax, market transactions will be active, but this is limited to the organic silicon market boost. Another raw material, monochloromethane, stable and small movement, a comprehensive view of the raw material side of silicones is difficult to support the market.
Demand lifting powerless
Shandong Rayon Chemical Co., Ltd. general manager Wang Chunming said, as the end market of silicone housing market, car market continues to be sluggish state, still no improvement. Combined with the upstream raw material side of the expansion of sufficient production, and downstream demand for silicone rubber and other expansion of landing less than expected, so that the silicone rubber market continues to run at a low level.
Wang Chunming introduced, from the first half of the end-products of various exhibitions and conferences, the real estate industry, the new energy industry, the two major terminal areas are not good news out.
At present, Zhejiang Zhongtian raw rubber device Hengye Cheng raw rubber device in the parking operation state, silicone rubber manufacturers to accept orders, the price is stable. 107 rubber, raw rubber products, a large factory concessions after the library, to stimulate some customers to enter the market to grab a single, so that inventory down to a manageable range, and the rest of the manufacturers subject to their own cost considerations with the fall limited, resulting in some of the wait-and-see customers more and more cautious, postponed orders.
Market participants said that the leading manufacturers to absolute cost, price and quality advantages in the market dominant role, which also hit other manufacturers to follow the decline in confidence, further accelerating the reshuffling of the market. The downstream demand continues to be weak, factory orders flat, the downstream industry after the market does not see good support, the industry is pessimistic, cautious to enter the market.
The future market, silicone rubber product prices are depressed, the market may be stalemate difficult. The previous manufacturers to reduce losses, the silicone DMC made of silicone rubber products for their own use, now the terminal demand for weak and weak state plus the leading manufacturers squeeze market share, forcing some silicone rubber manufacturers to withdraw from the market to wait and see, the market trading atmosphere doubly cold, silicone rubber market will continue to run weak and stable, the role of upstream silicone lifting is difficult to strong.
JIN DUN CHEMICAL has built a special (meth) acrylic monomer manufacturing base in ZHEJIANG province. This makes sure the stable supply of HEMA, HPMA, HEA, HPA, GMA with high level quality. Our special acrylate monomers are widely used for thermosetting acrylic resins, crosslinkable emulsion polymers, acrylate anaerobic adhesive, two-component acrylate adhesive, solvent acrylate adhesive, emulsion acrylate adhesive, paper finishing agent and painting acrylic resins in adhesive.We have also developed the new and special (meth) acrylic monomers and derivatives. Such as the fluorinated acrylate monomers, It can be widely used in coating leveling agent, paints, inks, photosensitive resins, optical materials, fiber treatment, modifier for plastic or rubber field. We are aiming to be the top supplier in the field of special acrylate monomers, to share our rich experience with better quality products and professional service.
