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Fluorochemicals chain market is hot and cold
2023/6/30
Recently, Sanmei announced that it intends to build 50,000 tons/year of lithium hexafluorophosphate and other projects; the IPO registration application of CJSC was approved, and the fundraising is mainly used for 30,000 tons/year of electronic grade hydrofluoric acid and other ultra-pure electronic chemicals projects. At the same time, located in Guizhou's Barium Fluoride New Materials Industrial Park also announced that the main building of the 40,000-ton/year electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid Phase I project was topped out. Compared with the traditional refrigerant market of fluorine chemical industry in the first half of this year, the emerging downstream lithium hexafluorophosphate market of fluorine chemical industry has been boosted by the rebounding demand for new energy vehicles, which has attracted frequent layouts of capital, and the market of fluorine chemical product chain has shown uneven hot and cold market trends.
Traditional downstream season is not prosperous
"The peak season of refrigerant production is almost over, but the market has been stagnant." Zhang Chunjiang, a fluorine chemical manufacturer in Liaoning Province, said that the peak season of refrigerant production is from March to June every year, but the market price of mainstream products has been declining instead of rising during the peak season this year.
Refrigerant, as the industry with the largest proportion of downstream applications in the fluorine chemical industry, has seen a rapid dive in this year's production season, which has caused a lot of concern and worries in the market. According to the statistics of Business News Agency, the average price of mainstream refrigerant products R134a was 25,000 yuan (ton price, the same below) and R22 was 20,500 yuan on June 21, down 1.96% and 1.6% respectively compared with the first half of April.
Refrigerant upstream of the mainstream product market is also hardly optimistic. The average market price of trichloromethane was 2,075 yuan on June 21, down 18.62% from the average price in early April; the average market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9,657.14 yuan on June 21, down 6.76% from the first half of April.
From the upstream of the fluorine chemical industry chain, fluorite, due to safety, environmental protection and other reasons, the upstream mining is still nervous, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and the raw material tension limits the fluorite enterprises to start work. In addition, the hydrofluoric acid start-up rate is around 60%, the purchase of fluorspar still maintains rigid demand, which supports the fluorspar market, and the spot supply is tight. But by the downstream refrigerant market demand is low, the current fluorspar prices than the first half of April only a small increase of 2.2%.
In the view of Huang Kan, a researcher of Western Securities, given that refrigerant has entered the production off-season, most of the air conditioner manufacturers have reduced negative production, coupled with the lack of refrigerant exports, short-term prices will continue to be weak. It is suggested that the market will continue to pay attention to the digestion of refrigerant stocks.
Emerging downstream bottoming out
Compared with the downturn of traditional refrigerant market, the representative product of emerging downstream of fluorine chemical industry, lithium hexafluorophosphate, has bottomed out in the second quarter of this year.
"Lithium hexafluorophosphate is a lithium battery solute with wide commercial application." Zhang Chunjiang introduced that its upstream includes raw materials such as lithium carbonate, phosphorus pentafluoride and hydrogen fluoride, and downstream is mainly used to produce electrolyte for lithium batteries, which is ultimately used in new energy vehicles and energy storage batteries, and is an emerging application area of the fluorine chemical industry chain in recent years.
Since last year, the lithium hexafluorophosphate market staged a "roller coaster" market. Caixin Securities analyst Zhou Ce introduced, since 2022, lithium hexafluorophosphate prices from a high of 590,000 yuan continued to fall, down more than 78% by the end of April this year. Since then, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has rebounded rapidly, rising from 127,500 yuan in mid-May to the current 162,500 yuan, up 27.45% in recent months.
"The lithium hexafluorophosphate prices bottomed out rebound and upstream lithium carbonate prices short-term surge associated closely." Zhang Chunjiang and other sources believe that. According to data from Minsheng Securities research report, when the price of lithium carbonate is 500,000 yuan, the cost of lithium hexafluorophosphate is about 164,000 yuan, and the cost of lithium carbonate accounts for 76.1% of its total cost. Therefore, the price of lithium carbonate has a significant impact on the production cost of lithium hexafluorophosphate.
In the first four months of this year, the price of lithium carbonate fell sharply by more than 70%, and has since rebounded strongly. Business data show that on June 22, the benchmark price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 318,000 yuan, a significant rebound of 63.92% from the low point of 194,000 yuan in April this year. From the cost side of the lithium hexafluorophosphate prices bottomed out, lithium carbonate market began to turn good, manufacturers believe that there is room for price increases in the short term. At the same time, lithium hexafluorophosphate enterprises due to raw material procurement difficulties, short-term supply and demand mismatch superimposed on cost support, prices will also rebound significantly.
New energy vehicles to boost confidence
The lithium hexafluorophosphate market rebound, Zhang Chunbo believes that the deep-seated reason is the terminal new energy vehicle industry demand rebound.
East high-tech chief theme researcher Yin Pengfei agreed: "Trolley to the countryside and other new energy vehicle support policies for lithium hexafluorophosphate demand is expected to enhance a great role." On June 15, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments issued a notice on the launch of new energy vehicles to the countryside in 2023, which is seen as a "red packet" to the market, causing widespread concern. Yin Pengfei believes that it is foreseeable that policies such as the tram to the countryside will open the second peak of car replacement in rural areas, with strong demand release expectations overlapping with the tram to the countryside policy will enhance the supply of new energy vehicles.
Lithium hexafluorophosphate is the key raw material for lithium battery electrolyte, which is used in the field of new energy vehicles, accounting for the largest share of electrolyte, with a market share of 70%. Industry research shows that the current electrolyte ratio, the production of 1GWh ternary batteries need about 90 to 110 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate, the production of 1GWh lithium iron phosphate batteries need about 125 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate. IFCS expects that by 2025, the demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate as a key material for electrolyte is 237,600 tons.
At present, the new energy industry chain upstream and downstream on lithium hexafluorophosphate price bullish expectations. Dongwu Securities pointed out that the new energy vehicle power battery and energy storage demand will recover, while the midstream materials inventory is extremely low, which will give rise to a strong demand for replenishment.
Traditional downstream season is not prosperous
"The peak season of refrigerant production is almost over, but the market has been stagnant." Zhang Chunjiang, a fluorine chemical manufacturer in Liaoning Province, said that the peak season of refrigerant production is from March to June every year, but the market price of mainstream products has been declining instead of rising during the peak season this year.
Refrigerant, as the industry with the largest proportion of downstream applications in the fluorine chemical industry, has seen a rapid dive in this year's production season, which has caused a lot of concern and worries in the market. According to the statistics of Business News Agency, the average price of mainstream refrigerant products R134a was 25,000 yuan (ton price, the same below) and R22 was 20,500 yuan on June 21, down 1.96% and 1.6% respectively compared with the first half of April.
Refrigerant upstream of the mainstream product market is also hardly optimistic. The average market price of trichloromethane was 2,075 yuan on June 21, down 18.62% from the average price in early April; the average market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9,657.14 yuan on June 21, down 6.76% from the first half of April.
From the upstream of the fluorine chemical industry chain, fluorite, due to safety, environmental protection and other reasons, the upstream mining is still nervous, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and the raw material tension limits the fluorite enterprises to start work. In addition, the hydrofluoric acid start-up rate is around 60%, the purchase of fluorspar still maintains rigid demand, which supports the fluorspar market, and the spot supply is tight. But by the downstream refrigerant market demand is low, the current fluorspar prices than the first half of April only a small increase of 2.2%.
In the view of Huang Kan, a researcher of Western Securities, given that refrigerant has entered the production off-season, most of the air conditioner manufacturers have reduced negative production, coupled with the lack of refrigerant exports, short-term prices will continue to be weak. It is suggested that the market will continue to pay attention to the digestion of refrigerant stocks.
Emerging downstream bottoming out
Compared with the downturn of traditional refrigerant market, the representative product of emerging downstream of fluorine chemical industry, lithium hexafluorophosphate, has bottomed out in the second quarter of this year.
"Lithium hexafluorophosphate is a lithium battery solute with wide commercial application." Zhang Chunjiang introduced that its upstream includes raw materials such as lithium carbonate, phosphorus pentafluoride and hydrogen fluoride, and downstream is mainly used to produce electrolyte for lithium batteries, which is ultimately used in new energy vehicles and energy storage batteries, and is an emerging application area of the fluorine chemical industry chain in recent years.
Since last year, the lithium hexafluorophosphate market staged a "roller coaster" market. Caixin Securities analyst Zhou Ce introduced, since 2022, lithium hexafluorophosphate prices from a high of 590,000 yuan continued to fall, down more than 78% by the end of April this year. Since then, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has rebounded rapidly, rising from 127,500 yuan in mid-May to the current 162,500 yuan, up 27.45% in recent months.
"The lithium hexafluorophosphate prices bottomed out rebound and upstream lithium carbonate prices short-term surge associated closely." Zhang Chunjiang and other sources believe that. According to data from Minsheng Securities research report, when the price of lithium carbonate is 500,000 yuan, the cost of lithium hexafluorophosphate is about 164,000 yuan, and the cost of lithium carbonate accounts for 76.1% of its total cost. Therefore, the price of lithium carbonate has a significant impact on the production cost of lithium hexafluorophosphate.
In the first four months of this year, the price of lithium carbonate fell sharply by more than 70%, and has since rebounded strongly. Business data show that on June 22, the benchmark price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 318,000 yuan, a significant rebound of 63.92% from the low point of 194,000 yuan in April this year. From the cost side of the lithium hexafluorophosphate prices bottomed out, lithium carbonate market began to turn good, manufacturers believe that there is room for price increases in the short term. At the same time, lithium hexafluorophosphate enterprises due to raw material procurement difficulties, short-term supply and demand mismatch superimposed on cost support, prices will also rebound significantly.
New energy vehicles to boost confidence
The lithium hexafluorophosphate market rebound, Zhang Chunbo believes that the deep-seated reason is the terminal new energy vehicle industry demand rebound.
East high-tech chief theme researcher Yin Pengfei agreed: "Trolley to the countryside and other new energy vehicle support policies for lithium hexafluorophosphate demand is expected to enhance a great role." On June 15, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments issued a notice on the launch of new energy vehicles to the countryside in 2023, which is seen as a "red packet" to the market, causing widespread concern. Yin Pengfei believes that it is foreseeable that policies such as the tram to the countryside will open the second peak of car replacement in rural areas, with strong demand release expectations overlapping with the tram to the countryside policy will enhance the supply of new energy vehicles.
Lithium hexafluorophosphate is the key raw material for lithium battery electrolyte, which is used in the field of new energy vehicles, accounting for the largest share of electrolyte, with a market share of 70%. Industry research shows that the current electrolyte ratio, the production of 1GWh ternary batteries need about 90 to 110 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate, the production of 1GWh lithium iron phosphate batteries need about 125 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate. IFCS expects that by 2025, the demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate as a key material for electrolyte is 237,600 tons.
At present, the new energy industry chain upstream and downstream on lithium hexafluorophosphate price bullish expectations. Dongwu Securities pointed out that the new energy vehicle power battery and energy storage demand will recover, while the midstream materials inventory is extremely low, which will give rise to a strong demand for replenishment.
Industry insiders pointed out that the capital is most sensitive to the development trend of the industry, has begun to layout fluorine chemical new energy field, said the future application of fluorine chemical products will be more focused on new energy, semiconductor and other strategic emerging industries.
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