Some time ago butyl alcohol market soaring again, octanol market offer more than 10,000 yuan in one fell swoop, butyl alcohol market offer also after months of consolidation back to 8,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), approaching 8,500 yuan, in a host of chemical products in the fire out of the circle. However, recently, butanol market has fallen back. As of June 20, the domestic mainstream market in the octanol offer about 9550 yuan, butanol offer about 7400 yuan.

In response to the recent shocks in the butyl alcohol market, Zhou Xiaohong, a senior economist engaged in market analysis at Qilu Petrochemical, believes it is mainly due to supply changes. The market took the opportunity to speculate after the butyl alcohol unit of Lucy Chemical stopped due to an accident. Only on May 4 butanol prices rose by 1,000 yuan, octanol rose by 1,200 yuan.

From the cost point of view, the domestic propylene plant start-up rate shockingly increased in May. Tianjin Bohaihua, Zhejiang Jinfa, Donghua Ningbo, Qingdao Jinneng and other propane dehydrogenation plant restarted one after another, propylene supply increased significantly, the price shock downward, linkage butyl alcohol prices retraced.

From the supply point of view, at the beginning of May, Lucy Chemical butyl alcohol production plant parking, domestic supply suddenly reduced, resulting in tight goods prices. mid to late May, the domestic and Tianjin Bohaihua, Lanfan Chemical, Heze Oriental and other octanol plant maintenance, Ningbo Juhua, Ningxia Baichuan and other new butyl alcohol plant put into operation, resulting in a phase of local resource supply fluctuations. 25 May, the leading enterprises Lucy Chemical and other devices restarted, the domestic Butyl alcohol supply increased, the market bottomed out on the downside.

From the demand point of view, butyl alcohol prices soared faster in early May, butyl alcohol high prices to the downstream plasticizers and other products cost pressure, the start rate fell, the demand for raw materials shrink, dragging butyl alcohol prices back down.

For the future market, Zhou Xiaohong analysis that the cost of raw materials, propylene cost support is weak and the amount of external supply continues to increase. On the supply side, Lucy Chemical, Tianjin Bohua Yongli and other devices to resume production, North China, Shandong production of octanol significantly increased; Ningxia Baichuan, Ningbo Juhua new devices n-butanol qualified products are put on the market. On the demand side, the downstream start is insufficient, the overall weak start rate. At the same time, butanol domestic and foreign price difference of nearly 2300 yuan, octanol price difference of more than 800 yuan, the export arbitrage window has opened.

In summary, the domestic butanol market in the supply increase, demand is weak pattern, by the balance of domestic and foreign import and export resources, downstream just replenishment, will continue to bottom out, and is expected to stabilize and rebound in mid to late August.

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