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Phase bottom signal appears Methanol market is expected to stop falling and stabilize
2023/6/28
Since May, the domestic methanol market has ushered in a round of accelerated bottoming out. As of June 15, the domestic methanol mainstream transaction price fell to 1,900 ~ 2,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), the low-end price even fell to below 1,800 yuan, down about 13% ringgit, a new low for the year, forming a general loss of producers, triggering the industry's concern about the future market.
"In mid-June, the domestic methanol market has slowed down the trend, the volume has also shrunk, in addition to some enterprises in Inner Mongolia prices are low, other regions between the transaction spread significantly narrowed, corporate losses continue to expand, the psychology of selling to enhance, began to support the price of sales. At present, the market trading atmosphere has been successively improved, the bottom of the market shows a narrowing trend, the bottom of the stage signal, the market is expected to stabilize." The market senior commentator Shao will be analyzed in this way.
Supply more demand less market even down
Business statistics show that since May the domestic methanol market continued to go down, as of June 15 the mainstream transaction price fell to about 1900 yuan, Nantong, Changzhou, Zhangjiagang, Ningbo and other major ports transaction price in 2000 ~ 2100 yuan, Henan area in 1800 ~ 1900 yuan, some areas in Inner Mongolia fell to about 1600 yuan, methanol producers around almost the entire line loss.
"The continued bottoming trend of the methanol market, in addition to the impact of the lower international market, and methanol downstream device start-up rate is not enough to have a greater relationship, coupled with some no downstream supporting by-products methanol also accelerated into the market, a variety of factors led to a continuous decline in domestic methanol prices." Henan Zhonghong Group Coal Chemical Co., Ltd. deputy director of the operation department Xia Yanle analysis said.
But after entering the middle of June, methanol market decline slowed down significantly, June 15, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi and other enterprises bidding prices have stopped falling rebound momentum. As of June 20, methanol prices have rebounded significantly. From a technical point of view, after the recent continuous decline in the methanol market, producers have increased the psychology of selling at a loss and have plans to increase the starting load of downstream supporting devices, and low-priced sources have started to decrease, and the market has narrowed and is expected to stabilize.
Continuous loss enterprises pity to sell
Centaline Futures weekly information shows that as of June 14, the total methanol port inventory was 742,800 tons, down 0.72 million tons, a weekly decline of 0.96%. Some representative enterprises in the mainland had stocks of 360,400 tons, down 12,900 tons, a weekly decline of 3.46%. "These data show that the overall domestic inventory is on a steady downward trend. The consumption of inventory is on the one hand to meet the new demand in the downstream market, and on the other hand is due to the continuous loss of the product to make the enterprises strengthen the psychology of shying away from selling, cut the amount of methanol external pure commodity sales, and turn to increase the amount of self-supporting devices to digest, for example, the comprehensive start-up rate of coal-to-olefin devices has been raised to more than 85%, and some enterprises have reached about 90%." Shao Huiwen said.
According to statistics, from June 9 to 15, the comprehensive downstream start rate of methanol was 72.18%, an increase of 0.65% YoY; the start rate of methanol plant was 76.15%, a drop of 1.74% YoY. "Although the methanol market is still in a weak position, some high-end prices are still making up for the drop, but this increase and decrease indicates that the market decline has slowed down significantly, the market began to further narrow, and there is little room for another sharp decline, and the market stopping and stabilizing is expected." Inner Mongolia, a large coal chemical company sales leader said so.
Good support for the stabilization of trading
According to the Zheng Institute of Commerce information shows that June 9 ~ 15 methanol futures fell after the rebound, in 1950 ~ 2050 yuan oscillation. Although the fundamental good boost is limited, but the macro good support the overall commodity rebound. According to the port market, as of June 14, CFR China methanol closed at $235/ton, down 2.08% YoY, converting to RMB 2,077.51.
Zhang Aiping, head of Henan Energy Carbon Research Institute Co., Ltd, said that both the futures market and imported sources have some support for the domestic methanol market. In the current general loss background, coal to olefin, coal to fertilizer, coke oven gas to methanol and other enterprises in response to the continuous decline in the methanol market, are exploring the appropriate ratio of self-use and pure sales to maximize product profitability, the overall market trading atmosphere has stabilized, the new supply and demand balance is expected to be formed in the near future.
Industry analysis, the current methanol market down momentum released more fully, but in the context of the low demand season, the market is unlikely to rebound in the short term. In the process of adjusting the ratio of self-use and export sales, the market is expected to step into a narrow finishing phase. It is recommended to pay active attention to the changes in the international market, the downstream start-up load improvement, and the recent macroeconomic guidance.
"In mid-June, the domestic methanol market has slowed down the trend, the volume has also shrunk, in addition to some enterprises in Inner Mongolia prices are low, other regions between the transaction spread significantly narrowed, corporate losses continue to expand, the psychology of selling to enhance, began to support the price of sales. At present, the market trading atmosphere has been successively improved, the bottom of the market shows a narrowing trend, the bottom of the stage signal, the market is expected to stabilize." The market senior commentator Shao will be analyzed in this way.
Supply more demand less market even down
Business statistics show that since May the domestic methanol market continued to go down, as of June 15 the mainstream transaction price fell to about 1900 yuan, Nantong, Changzhou, Zhangjiagang, Ningbo and other major ports transaction price in 2000 ~ 2100 yuan, Henan area in 1800 ~ 1900 yuan, some areas in Inner Mongolia fell to about 1600 yuan, methanol producers around almost the entire line loss.
"The continued bottoming trend of the methanol market, in addition to the impact of the lower international market, and methanol downstream device start-up rate is not enough to have a greater relationship, coupled with some no downstream supporting by-products methanol also accelerated into the market, a variety of factors led to a continuous decline in domestic methanol prices." Henan Zhonghong Group Coal Chemical Co., Ltd. deputy director of the operation department Xia Yanle analysis said.
But after entering the middle of June, methanol market decline slowed down significantly, June 15, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi and other enterprises bidding prices have stopped falling rebound momentum. As of June 20, methanol prices have rebounded significantly. From a technical point of view, after the recent continuous decline in the methanol market, producers have increased the psychology of selling at a loss and have plans to increase the starting load of downstream supporting devices, and low-priced sources have started to decrease, and the market has narrowed and is expected to stabilize.
Continuous loss enterprises pity to sell
Centaline Futures weekly information shows that as of June 14, the total methanol port inventory was 742,800 tons, down 0.72 million tons, a weekly decline of 0.96%. Some representative enterprises in the mainland had stocks of 360,400 tons, down 12,900 tons, a weekly decline of 3.46%. "These data show that the overall domestic inventory is on a steady downward trend. The consumption of inventory is on the one hand to meet the new demand in the downstream market, and on the other hand is due to the continuous loss of the product to make the enterprises strengthen the psychology of shying away from selling, cut the amount of methanol external pure commodity sales, and turn to increase the amount of self-supporting devices to digest, for example, the comprehensive start-up rate of coal-to-olefin devices has been raised to more than 85%, and some enterprises have reached about 90%." Shao Huiwen said.
According to statistics, from June 9 to 15, the comprehensive downstream start rate of methanol was 72.18%, an increase of 0.65% YoY; the start rate of methanol plant was 76.15%, a drop of 1.74% YoY. "Although the methanol market is still in a weak position, some high-end prices are still making up for the drop, but this increase and decrease indicates that the market decline has slowed down significantly, the market began to further narrow, and there is little room for another sharp decline, and the market stopping and stabilizing is expected." Inner Mongolia, a large coal chemical company sales leader said so.
Good support for the stabilization of trading
According to the Zheng Institute of Commerce information shows that June 9 ~ 15 methanol futures fell after the rebound, in 1950 ~ 2050 yuan oscillation. Although the fundamental good boost is limited, but the macro good support the overall commodity rebound. According to the port market, as of June 14, CFR China methanol closed at $235/ton, down 2.08% YoY, converting to RMB 2,077.51.
Zhang Aiping, head of Henan Energy Carbon Research Institute Co., Ltd, said that both the futures market and imported sources have some support for the domestic methanol market. In the current general loss background, coal to olefin, coal to fertilizer, coke oven gas to methanol and other enterprises in response to the continuous decline in the methanol market, are exploring the appropriate ratio of self-use and pure sales to maximize product profitability, the overall market trading atmosphere has stabilized, the new supply and demand balance is expected to be formed in the near future.
Industry analysis, the current methanol market down momentum released more fully, but in the context of the low demand season, the market is unlikely to rebound in the short term. In the process of adjusting the ratio of self-use and export sales, the market is expected to step into a narrow finishing phase. It is recommended to pay active attention to the changes in the international market, the downstream start-up load improvement, and the recent macroeconomic guidance.
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