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The end of fertilizer preparation June end of the demand side of the ammonium chloride market support turned weak
2023/6/25
At the beginning of June, ammonium chloride prices have fallen into the low, but short-term or signs of stabilization.
Zhuo Chuan information data show that ammonium chloride experienced three months of price cuts, in early June basically reached a short-term low. To dry-based ammonium chloride prices, for example, as of June 1, the national average price of dry-based ammonium chloride fell to 586 yuan / ton, compared with the high point of 1230 yuan / ton in early March, a drop of 52.11%.
Zhuo Chuang information analyst Ma Miao Miao said in an interview with reporters, the main reason for the price drop is the lack of demand. In early June, the price of ammonium chloride basically stopped falling, East China and Central China joint alkali enterprises dry-based ammonium chloride factory price maintained 550 ~ 600 yuan / ton. Stop falling mainly because of supply reduction and urea rose to the bottom. But in the medium and long term, the supply of ammonium chloride is expected to increase, the market bearish mentality is still relatively strong.
Spot prices fell
Since the beginning of March, the domestic ammonium chloride market market negative continuation, spot prices fell.
Ma Miao Miao told reporters that the downstream flow of ammonium chloride is mainly compound fertilizer, which accounts for 80% of the total demand. Compound fertilizer market in response to the call of the state spring fertilizer to ensure supply, some large compound fertilizer enterprises in the early raw materials at high prices to prepare a larger amount, but the peak season with fertilizer, finished fertilizer terminal procurement link is not good, laying the groundwork for the market price reduction.
"March to May, compound fertilizer capacity running rate gradually decline. early March, compound fertilizer capacity running rate of 57.48%, reaching a high point in the past two years, but its raw materials such as ammonium chloride and other pre-stockpile sufficient to take the lead in digesting enterprise raw material inventory, high capacity running rate caused by high finished goods inventory after the increase in production cuts, the late more to sell fixed production, raw material procurement presents a peak season is not strong phenomenon." Ma Miao Miao analysis, as of June 1, the compound fertilizer capacity running rate fell to 32.10%. Ammonium chloride and other raw materials signed with the compound fertilizer load reduction and reduction, the market ammonium chloride inventory accumulation.
The company's main business is the development of a new product, which is a new product for the company. From the "double-ton cost" and profit considerations, the joint soda plant start-up rate will not be reduced, the current has reached about 90%. And as a by-product of ammonium chloride is constantly output, and the opposite of the soda ash market, the downstream compound fertilizer plant start rate is low, for ammonium chloride procurement attitude is not positive, more consumption of the previous high-priced inventory. In addition, the impact of seasonal factors, the backlog of ammonium chloride particles demand is light, to just demand.
It is worth mentioning that since this year, ammonium chloride exports are not good, which is also the main reason for its price decline.
National customs data show that from January to April, China exported 21,500 tons of ammonium chloride for fertilizer, down 74.46% year-on-year; non-fertilizer ammonium chloride exports are relatively good due to the implementation of zero tariff, from January to April, a total of 41,800 tons of exports, up 5.26% year-on-year. However, overall, from January to April this year, China's total exports of ammonium chloride fell 48.93% year-on-year.
Short-term or stop falling and stabilize
"However, the supply in May slightly down superimposed on the urea rise, ammonium chloride short-term stop decline." Ma Miao Miao said that the market, driven by agricultural demand to follow up, urea prices have stopped falling since June 1, June 6 China's average closing price of small grain urea market price of 2222 yuan / ton, up 147 yuan / ton compared with the low point on May 31, or 7.08%.
Ma Miao Miao believes that, by the above-mentioned positive impact, compound fertilizer and extruded granular enterprises part of the incremental purchase of ammonium chloride, market orders slightly increased, the field trading atmosphere improved.
According to Zhuo Chuang information measurement, in May, the average start load rate of the joint alkali manufacturers is 78.69%, production of about 1,136,900 tons, a decline of 4.14% month-on-month, maintenance losses of about 307,800 tons.
Dai Li said, due to the early ammonium chloride downstream market demand is light, resulting in a faster price decline, manufacturers continue to narrow the profit space, the United alkali enterprises "double-ton cost" pressure. The current price of ammonium chloride has fallen to a low level, the downstream market inquiries slightly improved, some traders believe that the price basically bottomed out. early June, the manufacturers prices did not continue to go down and some manufacturers to cancel the bottom policy to support the confidence of the industry, the market is willing to raise prices again.
However, in Ma Miao Miao's view, the medium and long-term ammonium chloride is still weak operation.
Ma Miao Miao said that the market pessimism is on the one hand from the current supply is relatively adequate, and the future of new capacity investment production is expected to be large, the supply and demand side is loose; on the other hand is from the late urea and other nitrogen fertilizer price reduction is expected to bearish.
"In the second half of 2023, Lianqi ammonium chloride plans to add new devices are more concentrated, the overall industry start-up load or in more than 80% of the medium to high level. At present, the overall inventory of Lianqi ammonium chloride is still high, and the supply is relatively abundant." Ma Miao Miao believes that the demand side, in mid-to-late June with the end of agricultural fertilizer preparation, the national demand tends to disperse, coupled with the end of this round of production cycle of compound fertilizer, the capacity run rate declined, the end of June demand side of the ammonium chloride market support turned weak.
In the international market and alternatives, international nitrogen fertilizer prices are still at a low level, forming a negative trend for domestic trade.
According to Ma Miao Miao forecast, June domestic urea market prices are expected to rise first and then fall. early June summer fertilizer just demand release, overlapping with the price of May continued to weaken, manufacturers look forward to a strong mentality, prices stopped rebounding; but with the end of the production cycle of compound fertilizer enterprises, stopping production increases, urea plant no centralized maintenance news announced, the supply is greater than demand, urea prices or pressure downward in the second half of June, the ammonium chloride transaction Negative mood.
Miao Miao Ma believes that the first half of June, ammonium chloride market trends to stop falling and stable; the second half of the month, the supply recovery and demand contraction, supply and demand situation gradually relaxed. In addition, other nitrogen fertilizer trend weak to form a negative impact on ammonium chloride, transactions or still have room for decline.
Zhuo Chuan information data show that ammonium chloride experienced three months of price cuts, in early June basically reached a short-term low. To dry-based ammonium chloride prices, for example, as of June 1, the national average price of dry-based ammonium chloride fell to 586 yuan / ton, compared with the high point of 1230 yuan / ton in early March, a drop of 52.11%.
Zhuo Chuang information analyst Ma Miao Miao said in an interview with reporters, the main reason for the price drop is the lack of demand. In early June, the price of ammonium chloride basically stopped falling, East China and Central China joint alkali enterprises dry-based ammonium chloride factory price maintained 550 ~ 600 yuan / ton. Stop falling mainly because of supply reduction and urea rose to the bottom. But in the medium and long term, the supply of ammonium chloride is expected to increase, the market bearish mentality is still relatively strong.
Spot prices fell
Since the beginning of March, the domestic ammonium chloride market market negative continuation, spot prices fell.
Ma Miao Miao told reporters that the downstream flow of ammonium chloride is mainly compound fertilizer, which accounts for 80% of the total demand. Compound fertilizer market in response to the call of the state spring fertilizer to ensure supply, some large compound fertilizer enterprises in the early raw materials at high prices to prepare a larger amount, but the peak season with fertilizer, finished fertilizer terminal procurement link is not good, laying the groundwork for the market price reduction.
"March to May, compound fertilizer capacity running rate gradually decline. early March, compound fertilizer capacity running rate of 57.48%, reaching a high point in the past two years, but its raw materials such as ammonium chloride and other pre-stockpile sufficient to take the lead in digesting enterprise raw material inventory, high capacity running rate caused by high finished goods inventory after the increase in production cuts, the late more to sell fixed production, raw material procurement presents a peak season is not strong phenomenon." Ma Miao Miao analysis, as of June 1, the compound fertilizer capacity running rate fell to 32.10%. Ammonium chloride and other raw materials signed with the compound fertilizer load reduction and reduction, the market ammonium chloride inventory accumulation.
The company's main business is the development of a new product, which is a new product for the company. From the "double-ton cost" and profit considerations, the joint soda plant start-up rate will not be reduced, the current has reached about 90%. And as a by-product of ammonium chloride is constantly output, and the opposite of the soda ash market, the downstream compound fertilizer plant start rate is low, for ammonium chloride procurement attitude is not positive, more consumption of the previous high-priced inventory. In addition, the impact of seasonal factors, the backlog of ammonium chloride particles demand is light, to just demand.
It is worth mentioning that since this year, ammonium chloride exports are not good, which is also the main reason for its price decline.
National customs data show that from January to April, China exported 21,500 tons of ammonium chloride for fertilizer, down 74.46% year-on-year; non-fertilizer ammonium chloride exports are relatively good due to the implementation of zero tariff, from January to April, a total of 41,800 tons of exports, up 5.26% year-on-year. However, overall, from January to April this year, China's total exports of ammonium chloride fell 48.93% year-on-year.
Short-term or stop falling and stabilize
"However, the supply in May slightly down superimposed on the urea rise, ammonium chloride short-term stop decline." Ma Miao Miao said that the market, driven by agricultural demand to follow up, urea prices have stopped falling since June 1, June 6 China's average closing price of small grain urea market price of 2222 yuan / ton, up 147 yuan / ton compared with the low point on May 31, or 7.08%.
Ma Miao Miao believes that, by the above-mentioned positive impact, compound fertilizer and extruded granular enterprises part of the incremental purchase of ammonium chloride, market orders slightly increased, the field trading atmosphere improved.
According to Zhuo Chuang information measurement, in May, the average start load rate of the joint alkali manufacturers is 78.69%, production of about 1,136,900 tons, a decline of 4.14% month-on-month, maintenance losses of about 307,800 tons.
Dai Li said, due to the early ammonium chloride downstream market demand is light, resulting in a faster price decline, manufacturers continue to narrow the profit space, the United alkali enterprises "double-ton cost" pressure. The current price of ammonium chloride has fallen to a low level, the downstream market inquiries slightly improved, some traders believe that the price basically bottomed out. early June, the manufacturers prices did not continue to go down and some manufacturers to cancel the bottom policy to support the confidence of the industry, the market is willing to raise prices again.
However, in Ma Miao Miao's view, the medium and long-term ammonium chloride is still weak operation.
Ma Miao Miao said that the market pessimism is on the one hand from the current supply is relatively adequate, and the future of new capacity investment production is expected to be large, the supply and demand side is loose; on the other hand is from the late urea and other nitrogen fertilizer price reduction is expected to bearish.
"In the second half of 2023, Lianqi ammonium chloride plans to add new devices are more concentrated, the overall industry start-up load or in more than 80% of the medium to high level. At present, the overall inventory of Lianqi ammonium chloride is still high, and the supply is relatively abundant." Ma Miao Miao believes that the demand side, in mid-to-late June with the end of agricultural fertilizer preparation, the national demand tends to disperse, coupled with the end of this round of production cycle of compound fertilizer, the capacity run rate declined, the end of June demand side of the ammonium chloride market support turned weak.
In the international market and alternatives, international nitrogen fertilizer prices are still at a low level, forming a negative trend for domestic trade.
According to Ma Miao Miao forecast, June domestic urea market prices are expected to rise first and then fall. early June summer fertilizer just demand release, overlapping with the price of May continued to weaken, manufacturers look forward to a strong mentality, prices stopped rebounding; but with the end of the production cycle of compound fertilizer enterprises, stopping production increases, urea plant no centralized maintenance news announced, the supply is greater than demand, urea prices or pressure downward in the second half of June, the ammonium chloride transaction Negative mood.
Miao Miao Ma believes that the first half of June, ammonium chloride market trends to stop falling and stable; the second half of the month, the supply recovery and demand contraction, supply and demand situation gradually relaxed. In addition, other nitrogen fertilizer trend weak to form a negative impact on ammonium chloride, transactions or still have room for decline.
Dai Li is of the view that, driven by multiple factors such as agricultural needs replenishment, ammonium chloride demand has been released, the market trend returned to stable or even a slight recovery. However, in the medium and long term, the high daily production and demand pressure still exists, a significant price increase is relatively difficult, short-term or stable operation, local area prices or narrow upward movement.
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