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Methanol has performed better since late June, and many places are pushing up to different degrees
2023/6/25
Since late June, the overall performance of China's methanol market has been better, with many places showing different degrees of push up, and the upside of the mainland is slightly stronger than the port. According to monitoring data, as of June 21 close, Taicang price was at 2075-2095 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from June 15; Shandong price was at 1980-2040 yuan/ton, 100-130 yuan/ton higher than June 15; Shanxi around at 1870-1920 yuan/ton, up 120-130 yuan/ton from mid-June; Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia respectively In 1720-1850 yuan / ton, 1720-1780 yuan / ton, compared to the middle of June moved higher by 50-120 yuan / ton.
It can be clearly seen that the mainland market rose significantly stronger than the port at that stage, where the mainland rose by 5%-7%, Shanxi region rose by 7%; while the port rose by only 2.21%. On the impact of June under the domestic methanol market higher causative factors: macro and micro factors are involved in:
1. Macro policy is expected to release more favorable release of strong commodity drive is still available
In the second quarter, economic momentum is weaker than the market expected in the background, employment and prices and other macroeconomic indicators also indicate that the current economic growth rate is lower than the potential growth rate. To ensure that the economy does not deviate from the steady recovery track, on June 13, the interest rate of 7-day reverse repo was lowered by 10 basis points from 2% to 1.9%, according to the central bank disclosure, which is the first time the central bank has lowered the reverse repo rate since August 2022. In addition, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Offered Rate Center to announce that the loan market quotation rate (LPR) on June 20: 1-year LPR was lowered by 10 basis points to 3.55%, and the 5-year LPR was 4.20%, also lowered by 10 basis points. The central bank's frequent "interest rate cut" initiatives and fiscal counter-cyclical adjustment have also made the market bearish mentality slightly reversed. Therefore, we also see that since June 13, the bottom of the Mandarin commodity index also rebounded strongly, as of June 19, the index closed 175.92 points, compared with the low point in early June moved up 10.2 points.
2. Feedstock coal prices stopped falling and rebounded to strengthen the cost support of methanol end
Beginning in mid-to-late June, along with the northern high temperature in many places to raise the obvious impact of the North Port inventory daily consumption inflection point is obvious; and with the downstream replenishment actively follow up, pithead, port coal prices are gradually stabilized rebound, the industry's mood gradually turn better, the market pulling transport than the previous positive. In addition, the June 19 coal mine accident in Shanxi, many places safety inspection is apparently strict on the local coal supply is also slightly affected. As of now, the price of 5500 calorie coal for non-electric enterprises in Inner Mongolia region is 570-610 yuan/ton, and the price of 5800 calorie coal in Shaanxi is 640-690 yuan/ton, up 40-70 yuan/ton from June 15. Along with the rise in coal prices, the cost side of methanol support stronger, the factor also to some extent drive the methanol market buying gradually involved. In addition, from January to May this year, coal mine accidents occurred frequently around Inner Mongolia, and the follow-up also needs to pay close attention to the safety inspection strength to enhance the impact on coal supply.
3. Traditional downstream VS olefin demand performance is slightly different
At present, the traditional downstream seasonal consumption off-season characteristics gradually highlighted, coupled with the impact of some industrial device overhaul, the overall demand for methanol performance is general; but under June with the restart of Lucy olefin recovery, coupled with the Northwest extension of coal raw material out of the boost, the mainland olefin class on the overall demand for methanol is incremental performance, thus driving the mainland methanol shipments smoothly. However, at this stage, the port is facing a shortage of arrivals to tired storage, Xingxing olefin shutdown, so the overall rhythm of pushing up is slightly cautious. In addition, June under the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaching, in the background of the plate tends to strengthen, traders focus on filling short, downstream pre-holiday stocking / replenishment, etc., to further push up methanol prices fast-paced upward. Such as June 19 - June 21 three working days, the production area of Shaanxi and Mongolia rose by 80-130 yuan / ton; trade transfer prices also moved up during the period.
Therefore, the above three factors intertwined, superimposed on the previous methanol prices more deeply down, the market mentality slightly better boosted, methanol spot end of the market stabilization rebound momentum performance is better. In terms of the post-holiday period, based on the overall better upstream shipments before the holiday, upstream to store; coupled with macro policy regulation to the good expectations continue to ferment, coal seasonal demand release support coal prices continue to rebound, etc.. It is expected that the methanol market may continue to strengthen finishing, while the overall performance of the port in Iran supply recovery, under the abundant arrival ship, or slightly weaker than the mainland. In addition, there are still some impact points to continue to pay attention to:
(1) methanol device changes: after the Dragon Boat Festival, some devices are expected to restart and resume, such as Jiutai Tosian, Ningxia Kunpeng, Gansu Huating, Yulin Kaiyue, Baotailong, Sichuan Wanhua, Xinjiang Guanghui, etc., another Shanghai and Mongolia plans to put into operation near the end of June; however, there are also easy high plans to overhaul, another part of the southwest device due to product efficiency and other issues, the end of the month near the parking plan, to be concerned. Therefore, overall, the domestic methanol start-up will be higher after the festival; but in early July, July near some devices planned to overhaul, such as the first phase of Xin'ao, Evergreen, Lean Chemical, etc., the specific implementation of the situation to be concerned.
(2) demand changes: June under the Lucy olefin restart has landed; follow-up into July continue to focus on the traditional downstream demand changes, such as along with the subsequent domestic rainy season, formaldehyde, board plants and other demand or further light;;
(3) Coal: With the rise in temperature, the recent coal pulling positive, short-term coal prices may continue to move upward; however, in July with the approach of the rainy season, hydropower power generation is expected to form a certain negative suppression of coal demand, so you still need to pay attention to the periodicity and rhythm of coal prices upward;;
It can be clearly seen that the mainland market rose significantly stronger than the port at that stage, where the mainland rose by 5%-7%, Shanxi region rose by 7%; while the port rose by only 2.21%. On the impact of June under the domestic methanol market higher causative factors: macro and micro factors are involved in:
1. Macro policy is expected to release more favorable release of strong commodity drive is still available
In the second quarter, economic momentum is weaker than the market expected in the background, employment and prices and other macroeconomic indicators also indicate that the current economic growth rate is lower than the potential growth rate. To ensure that the economy does not deviate from the steady recovery track, on June 13, the interest rate of 7-day reverse repo was lowered by 10 basis points from 2% to 1.9%, according to the central bank disclosure, which is the first time the central bank has lowered the reverse repo rate since August 2022. In addition, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Offered Rate Center to announce that the loan market quotation rate (LPR) on June 20: 1-year LPR was lowered by 10 basis points to 3.55%, and the 5-year LPR was 4.20%, also lowered by 10 basis points. The central bank's frequent "interest rate cut" initiatives and fiscal counter-cyclical adjustment have also made the market bearish mentality slightly reversed. Therefore, we also see that since June 13, the bottom of the Mandarin commodity index also rebounded strongly, as of June 19, the index closed 175.92 points, compared with the low point in early June moved up 10.2 points.
2. Feedstock coal prices stopped falling and rebounded to strengthen the cost support of methanol end
Beginning in mid-to-late June, along with the northern high temperature in many places to raise the obvious impact of the North Port inventory daily consumption inflection point is obvious; and with the downstream replenishment actively follow up, pithead, port coal prices are gradually stabilized rebound, the industry's mood gradually turn better, the market pulling transport than the previous positive. In addition, the June 19 coal mine accident in Shanxi, many places safety inspection is apparently strict on the local coal supply is also slightly affected. As of now, the price of 5500 calorie coal for non-electric enterprises in Inner Mongolia region is 570-610 yuan/ton, and the price of 5800 calorie coal in Shaanxi is 640-690 yuan/ton, up 40-70 yuan/ton from June 15. Along with the rise in coal prices, the cost side of methanol support stronger, the factor also to some extent drive the methanol market buying gradually involved. In addition, from January to May this year, coal mine accidents occurred frequently around Inner Mongolia, and the follow-up also needs to pay close attention to the safety inspection strength to enhance the impact on coal supply.
3. Traditional downstream VS olefin demand performance is slightly different
At present, the traditional downstream seasonal consumption off-season characteristics gradually highlighted, coupled with the impact of some industrial device overhaul, the overall demand for methanol performance is general; but under June with the restart of Lucy olefin recovery, coupled with the Northwest extension of coal raw material out of the boost, the mainland olefin class on the overall demand for methanol is incremental performance, thus driving the mainland methanol shipments smoothly. However, at this stage, the port is facing a shortage of arrivals to tired storage, Xingxing olefin shutdown, so the overall rhythm of pushing up is slightly cautious. In addition, June under the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaching, in the background of the plate tends to strengthen, traders focus on filling short, downstream pre-holiday stocking / replenishment, etc., to further push up methanol prices fast-paced upward. Such as June 19 - June 21 three working days, the production area of Shaanxi and Mongolia rose by 80-130 yuan / ton; trade transfer prices also moved up during the period.
Therefore, the above three factors intertwined, superimposed on the previous methanol prices more deeply down, the market mentality slightly better boosted, methanol spot end of the market stabilization rebound momentum performance is better. In terms of the post-holiday period, based on the overall better upstream shipments before the holiday, upstream to store; coupled with macro policy regulation to the good expectations continue to ferment, coal seasonal demand release support coal prices continue to rebound, etc.. It is expected that the methanol market may continue to strengthen finishing, while the overall performance of the port in Iran supply recovery, under the abundant arrival ship, or slightly weaker than the mainland. In addition, there are still some impact points to continue to pay attention to:
(1) methanol device changes: after the Dragon Boat Festival, some devices are expected to restart and resume, such as Jiutai Tosian, Ningxia Kunpeng, Gansu Huating, Yulin Kaiyue, Baotailong, Sichuan Wanhua, Xinjiang Guanghui, etc., another Shanghai and Mongolia plans to put into operation near the end of June; however, there are also easy high plans to overhaul, another part of the southwest device due to product efficiency and other issues, the end of the month near the parking plan, to be concerned. Therefore, overall, the domestic methanol start-up will be higher after the festival; but in early July, July near some devices planned to overhaul, such as the first phase of Xin'ao, Evergreen, Lean Chemical, etc., the specific implementation of the situation to be concerned.
(2) demand changes: June under the Lucy olefin restart has landed; follow-up into July continue to focus on the traditional downstream demand changes, such as along with the subsequent domestic rainy season, formaldehyde, board plants and other demand or further light;;
(3) Coal: With the rise in temperature, the recent coal pulling positive, short-term coal prices may continue to move upward; however, in July with the approach of the rainy season, hydropower power generation is expected to form a certain negative suppression of coal demand, so you still need to pay attention to the periodicity and rhythm of coal prices upward;;
(4) macro: follow-up continue to focus on the national macro-good policies on energy and chemical products; but the impact of the Federal Reserve policy, such as the continued depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, concern about the impact on commodity imports and exports.
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