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June polyester "unusual" reached the year production and sales "peak"
2023/6/21
June is the polyester market off-season, but this year the polyester market is "unusual". The reporter learned that on June 14, polyester production and sales volume, the production and sales rate of the day up to more than 400%, the production and sales rate of some factories is as high as 700%, reaching the year production and sales "peak".
In this regard, Zheshang futures analyst Zhu Lihang explained that in the context of the raw material PTA prices rose sharply, the downstream factories focus on replenishment, resulting in the overall volume of production and sales.
"Polyester production and sales soared to the highest in the year, overall, export orders turned warm is a more important reason, the overseas market devices in the low processing costs under the choice of production cuts or even shutdown, which opened up space for domestic enterprises exports. Under the polyester enterprise concession promotion, downstream profit expansion, the willingness to buy goods enhanced."
The reporter learned that the recent peak in polyester market production and sales is mainly market sentiment turned good, after the rise in PTA prices, polyester prices did not follow the PTA price increase, the factory instead took a concession promotion, in the downstream focus on replenishment of the point in time, the downstream then appeared to put the volume of transactions.
In fact, price reduction promotions are more common in the polyester market, as a way to price for volume to ensure a healthier polyester factory inventory. With the continuous expansion of polyester plant capacity, the market as a whole shows signs of overcapacity, in order to expand the share of the downstream market, polyester plant began to focus on the concessionary promotions.
According to analysts at Lonzhong Information, polyester price reduction promotions are mostly concentrated in polyester filament. Mainly due to the decline in raw materials at the time, the current month's production and sales did not do flat background, in order to stimulate production and sales to control inventory and price reduction promotions. Usually will show a significant rebound in market transactions, factory orders show explosive growth, equity inventory levels have a significant decline in the effect.
In the view of Zhu Lihang, off-season with a wave of high production and sales is a normal phenomenon, but the current polyester profits have not been high, and then cut prices space is limited, and with the downstream demand for just replenishment completed, the subsequent demand for polyester or weakened, after all, the current market is still in the off-season, the terminal demand is still relatively flat.
"Mid-June polyester filament staple production and sales release, is after the price fell to a low level, and in conjunction with the rising atmosphere of raw material futures, there is a concentrated downstream procurement market." In Huarui information senior analyst Yuan Yuan, single-day production and sales release is a normal wave of the market, but also need to admit that this year's polyester load and downstream start, showing a significant toughness.
At present, the polyester new production capacity put into operation smoothly, while the load has been maintained at a high level, inventory pressure has not yet appeared significantly enlarged.
According to Yuan Yuan, May and June raw materials trend is weak, the cost pressure of the industry chain is not much, the market that the price risk is relatively limited, enterprises can largely maintain stable operations, is an important reason to support the off-season start solid. In other words, the current industry chain as a whole is in a relatively virtuous cycle of price for volume.
"For polyester raw materials, polyester and downstream starts are solid, which is conducive to supporting demand expectations and market confidence; but polyester load has been at a high level, and raw materials have not been in a tight situation for the time being, which also leads to the market still holds a certain cautious view." Yuan Yuan said.
In Yuan Yuan's view, from the current situation, polyester high load can also maintain a certain degree of sustainability, for the time being is not too big to see a drop. "From the polyester and downstream links, despite the local time in the process of accumulation, but the inventory days compared to previous years is still at a manageable level, for the time being, it is not so much as to drag the business to a significant reduction in the negative."
"In the short term, the polyester off-season there is the possibility of a smooth transition, but the long-term benign development, or to see the actual demand for the realization of the situation." Yuan Yuan said that the current off-season accumulation of storage, is for the ultimate demand realization, if the total amount of terminal demand is limited, then the inventory accumulated under high load operation, the subsequent development may become a risk factor. "From the immediate operating indicators temporarily solid, the market's hidden worries may be more in the long term, such as around the fourth quarter."
"In the medium to long term, polyester bottles and flakes may be the first to carry out concentrated production cuts." The above-mentioned analysts believe that this year, the bottle flakes put into production more, and more leading enterprises large devices put into production, in the situation of concentrated increase in supply, the current polyester bottle flakes industry cash flow has been rapidly compressed, the late load or a significant decline.
Currently, the textile and apparel industry will face up to two months of the industry off-season, domestic and foreign demand performance is weak. In the light of demand, production and sales weakness, inventory rise in the situation, polyester filament leading enterprises, mainly polyester plants will take the initiative to moderate production cuts to ensure that inventory is reasonably controllable, so as to occupy the initiative in the later part of the market.
In this regard, Zheshang futures analyst Zhu Lihang explained that in the context of the raw material PTA prices rose sharply, the downstream factories focus on replenishment, resulting in the overall volume of production and sales.
"Polyester production and sales soared to the highest in the year, overall, export orders turned warm is a more important reason, the overseas market devices in the low processing costs under the choice of production cuts or even shutdown, which opened up space for domestic enterprises exports. Under the polyester enterprise concession promotion, downstream profit expansion, the willingness to buy goods enhanced."
The reporter learned that the recent peak in polyester market production and sales is mainly market sentiment turned good, after the rise in PTA prices, polyester prices did not follow the PTA price increase, the factory instead took a concession promotion, in the downstream focus on replenishment of the point in time, the downstream then appeared to put the volume of transactions.
In fact, price reduction promotions are more common in the polyester market, as a way to price for volume to ensure a healthier polyester factory inventory. With the continuous expansion of polyester plant capacity, the market as a whole shows signs of overcapacity, in order to expand the share of the downstream market, polyester plant began to focus on the concessionary promotions.
According to analysts at Lonzhong Information, polyester price reduction promotions are mostly concentrated in polyester filament. Mainly due to the decline in raw materials at the time, the current month's production and sales did not do flat background, in order to stimulate production and sales to control inventory and price reduction promotions. Usually will show a significant rebound in market transactions, factory orders show explosive growth, equity inventory levels have a significant decline in the effect.
In the view of Zhu Lihang, off-season with a wave of high production and sales is a normal phenomenon, but the current polyester profits have not been high, and then cut prices space is limited, and with the downstream demand for just replenishment completed, the subsequent demand for polyester or weakened, after all, the current market is still in the off-season, the terminal demand is still relatively flat.
"Mid-June polyester filament staple production and sales release, is after the price fell to a low level, and in conjunction with the rising atmosphere of raw material futures, there is a concentrated downstream procurement market." In Huarui information senior analyst Yuan Yuan, single-day production and sales release is a normal wave of the market, but also need to admit that this year's polyester load and downstream start, showing a significant toughness.
At present, the polyester new production capacity put into operation smoothly, while the load has been maintained at a high level, inventory pressure has not yet appeared significantly enlarged.
According to Yuan Yuan, May and June raw materials trend is weak, the cost pressure of the industry chain is not much, the market that the price risk is relatively limited, enterprises can largely maintain stable operations, is an important reason to support the off-season start solid. In other words, the current industry chain as a whole is in a relatively virtuous cycle of price for volume.
"For polyester raw materials, polyester and downstream starts are solid, which is conducive to supporting demand expectations and market confidence; but polyester load has been at a high level, and raw materials have not been in a tight situation for the time being, which also leads to the market still holds a certain cautious view." Yuan Yuan said.
In Yuan Yuan's view, from the current situation, polyester high load can also maintain a certain degree of sustainability, for the time being is not too big to see a drop. "From the polyester and downstream links, despite the local time in the process of accumulation, but the inventory days compared to previous years is still at a manageable level, for the time being, it is not so much as to drag the business to a significant reduction in the negative."
"In the short term, the polyester off-season there is the possibility of a smooth transition, but the long-term benign development, or to see the actual demand for the realization of the situation." Yuan Yuan said that the current off-season accumulation of storage, is for the ultimate demand realization, if the total amount of terminal demand is limited, then the inventory accumulated under high load operation, the subsequent development may become a risk factor. "From the immediate operating indicators temporarily solid, the market's hidden worries may be more in the long term, such as around the fourth quarter."
"In the medium to long term, polyester bottles and flakes may be the first to carry out concentrated production cuts." The above-mentioned analysts believe that this year, the bottle flakes put into production more, and more leading enterprises large devices put into production, in the situation of concentrated increase in supply, the current polyester bottle flakes industry cash flow has been rapidly compressed, the late load or a significant decline.
Currently, the textile and apparel industry will face up to two months of the industry off-season, domestic and foreign demand performance is weak. In the light of demand, production and sales weakness, inventory rise in the situation, polyester filament leading enterprises, mainly polyester plants will take the initiative to moderate production cuts to ensure that inventory is reasonably controllable, so as to occupy the initiative in the later part of the market.
"At present, POY, FDY, DTY and polyester staple fiber inventory to maintain a neutral, overseas polyester load decline, making the domestic polyester export short-term bias good, domestic polyester load is difficult to have a significant decline." In Chen Sheng's view, due to the poor expectations of the post-market off-season, the PTA market short-term logic is more concerned about changes in maintenance.
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