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Macro atmosphere is weak, polyester products ride the wave of counter-trend upward
2023/6/16
Recently, polyester downstream profits of various products improved significantly, turning losses into profits, and polyester starts although breaking the 90% mark, but still stable to warehouse. In the overall macro atmosphere is weak under the environment, why polyester products can ride the wave, counter-trend upward? We believe that there are three main points: First, raw material prices weaken, polyester products cash flow has improved; Second, the terminal order stage repair, demand beyond the expected release; Third, the downstream in order to lock the order profit, raw material stocking will increase.
Product profits rebounded
Recently, along with the end of the PX overhaul season, the supply picked up, prices fell back, PTA is also slowly out of the pattern of the early tight, in the case of cost downward superimposed on the recovery of demand, polyester chain profits smooth downward conduction, the products have different degrees of profit recovery. In particular, staple fiber, POY, FDY and slices of the most obvious profit repair, as well as long-term losses of varieties are gradually turning losses into profits.
The most unexpected is that polyester chips instead of polyester bottle flakes, become the recent "star". Phase view, polyester slices are not synchronized with other links of the supply side of the release, the local device production is a certain contraction, the demand side since the second quarter of this year, the downstream slicing spinning and some other slices demand links of the start of a significant pick-up, a significant increase in demand for slices; long-term perspective, slices as an intermediate product in the polyester industry chain, polyester expansion on its expansion pressure does not have Persistent, and the current slicing market capacity elimination period is basically over, the market is more stable, so the recent slicing efficiency is relatively excellent performance.
Terminal orders phase repair
Recently, Jingdong released the 618 pre-sale report, in which the clothing category ushered in the order explosion, the overall growth of pre-sale orders of more than 90%, mainly in men's and women's clothing, children's clothing, sportswear, shoes and bags, etc., a number of major brands at home and abroad to achieve high growth, a variety of sharp shoes and clothing sold out in half an hour. At the same time, with the arrival of the hot summer, swimwear, home wear, sun protection clothing, rushing clothes, outdoor backpacks and other categories also achieved a year-on-year growth of more than three times the hot scene. Domestic clothing textile category demand repair along with the mid-year promotion and children's day promotion, the current order situation is very considerable.
Although June is the traditional off-season for the apparel textile industry, but the first half of this year there is a demand release and lag, so at present, the June textile order situation is still possible. From the overall perspective of the textile industry, new orders on the knitting slightly weaker, warp knitting and circular machine more production of pre-order-based; water jet orders are partially okay, the better performance of the varieties are mainly imitation acetic acid and imitation cotton products.
Enterprise raw material preparation will be enhanced
Staple fiber during the same period, the start rate is not high, inventory levels are also low, but production and sales better than the same period last year, and cash flow loss repair good. Filament has also been in low inventory levels, cash flow repair good. March-April PTA prices are too high, and the downstream demand is relatively cold, many polyester companies worried about the risk of falling raw material prices, and no high prices to buy raw materials and demand, which led to the polyester industry chain to reduce the negative feedback situation. At present, with the downward adjustment of raw material prices, further repair of downstream demand, the polyester industry chain as a whole start load, especially the slicing start to raise the negative speed faster, the overall downstream willingness to purchase raw materials, raw material holdings have increased, the average in more than 10 days level. As of this week, the terminal's raw material stockpiling is still concentrated in 1-2 weeks mainly, individual high near a month.
May polyester counter trend upward on the one hand, the consumption release is obvious, mostly for March-April order demand post. In addition, although domestic demand and exports have recovered to some extent, but overseas apparel, gray cloth is still in the process of depot, consumption is weak, so even if domestic demand picks up, foreign trade business in the short term is difficult to restore the previous heat. The next 2-3 months, overseas terminal orders or significantly reduced. On the other hand is the polyester load due to polyester profit repair good and inventory is still available, there is a sustained increase.
As of now, the high point of polyester load has exceeded 90%. The current round of polyester load around the beginning of June is basically over, but is expected to continue to maintain high levels before mid-June, the next trend down will need to be judged according to the price situation of the raw material side. For the time being, PTA by the U.S. debt problem, interest rate hike is expected and macroeconomic recession risk and other negative impact, prices fell significantly. Even if the polyester to mention negative to PTA has some support, the collapse of the cost side and the supply of sufficient expectations are also a drag on the PTA market prices. In the short term, PTA supply and demand pattern is good, the bottom of the formation of support; in the medium and long term, PTA still lacks upward momentum, need to pay attention to the cost and supply performance. The negative feedback phenomenon caused by the previous PTA surge is obvious to all, if the late raw materials can not continue to maintain a low level, will have a negative impact on the release of terminal demand, then, the polyester industry or again appear to phase down negative.
Product profits rebounded
Recently, along with the end of the PX overhaul season, the supply picked up, prices fell back, PTA is also slowly out of the pattern of the early tight, in the case of cost downward superimposed on the recovery of demand, polyester chain profits smooth downward conduction, the products have different degrees of profit recovery. In particular, staple fiber, POY, FDY and slices of the most obvious profit repair, as well as long-term losses of varieties are gradually turning losses into profits.
The most unexpected is that polyester chips instead of polyester bottle flakes, become the recent "star". Phase view, polyester slices are not synchronized with other links of the supply side of the release, the local device production is a certain contraction, the demand side since the second quarter of this year, the downstream slicing spinning and some other slices demand links of the start of a significant pick-up, a significant increase in demand for slices; long-term perspective, slices as an intermediate product in the polyester industry chain, polyester expansion on its expansion pressure does not have Persistent, and the current slicing market capacity elimination period is basically over, the market is more stable, so the recent slicing efficiency is relatively excellent performance.
Terminal orders phase repair
Recently, Jingdong released the 618 pre-sale report, in which the clothing category ushered in the order explosion, the overall growth of pre-sale orders of more than 90%, mainly in men's and women's clothing, children's clothing, sportswear, shoes and bags, etc., a number of major brands at home and abroad to achieve high growth, a variety of sharp shoes and clothing sold out in half an hour. At the same time, with the arrival of the hot summer, swimwear, home wear, sun protection clothing, rushing clothes, outdoor backpacks and other categories also achieved a year-on-year growth of more than three times the hot scene. Domestic clothing textile category demand repair along with the mid-year promotion and children's day promotion, the current order situation is very considerable.
Although June is the traditional off-season for the apparel textile industry, but the first half of this year there is a demand release and lag, so at present, the June textile order situation is still possible. From the overall perspective of the textile industry, new orders on the knitting slightly weaker, warp knitting and circular machine more production of pre-order-based; water jet orders are partially okay, the better performance of the varieties are mainly imitation acetic acid and imitation cotton products.
Enterprise raw material preparation will be enhanced
Staple fiber during the same period, the start rate is not high, inventory levels are also low, but production and sales better than the same period last year, and cash flow loss repair good. Filament has also been in low inventory levels, cash flow repair good. March-April PTA prices are too high, and the downstream demand is relatively cold, many polyester companies worried about the risk of falling raw material prices, and no high prices to buy raw materials and demand, which led to the polyester industry chain to reduce the negative feedback situation. At present, with the downward adjustment of raw material prices, further repair of downstream demand, the polyester industry chain as a whole start load, especially the slicing start to raise the negative speed faster, the overall downstream willingness to purchase raw materials, raw material holdings have increased, the average in more than 10 days level. As of this week, the terminal's raw material stockpiling is still concentrated in 1-2 weeks mainly, individual high near a month.
May polyester counter trend upward on the one hand, the consumption release is obvious, mostly for March-April order demand post. In addition, although domestic demand and exports have recovered to some extent, but overseas apparel, gray cloth is still in the process of depot, consumption is weak, so even if domestic demand picks up, foreign trade business in the short term is difficult to restore the previous heat. The next 2-3 months, overseas terminal orders or significantly reduced. On the other hand is the polyester load due to polyester profit repair good and inventory is still available, there is a sustained increase.
As of now, the high point of polyester load has exceeded 90%. The current round of polyester load around the beginning of June is basically over, but is expected to continue to maintain high levels before mid-June, the next trend down will need to be judged according to the price situation of the raw material side. For the time being, PTA by the U.S. debt problem, interest rate hike is expected and macroeconomic recession risk and other negative impact, prices fell significantly. Even if the polyester to mention negative to PTA has some support, the collapse of the cost side and the supply of sufficient expectations are also a drag on the PTA market prices. In the short term, PTA supply and demand pattern is good, the bottom of the formation of support; in the medium and long term, PTA still lacks upward momentum, need to pay attention to the cost and supply performance. The negative feedback phenomenon caused by the previous PTA surge is obvious to all, if the late raw materials can not continue to maintain a low level, will have a negative impact on the release of terminal demand, then, the polyester industry or again appear to phase down negative.
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