Export volume has fallen back in June PTA demand will remain high
2023/6/9
From the cost side, crude oil, with the OPEC + June meeting reached a new agreement, Saudi Arabia increased production cuts of 1 million barrels / day, other OPEC countries will be before the production cut time extended to 2024, the market supply of short-term perturbation, coupled with the macro-side of Europe and the United States sentiment warming, crude oil prices have gained some support, but the medium and long-term is still suppressed by macro factors.
From the supply and demand pattern, May PTA device load first high and then low, and the new capacity to contribute production, monthly output to a new record high, reaching 5.28 million tons, an increase of 2.58%, an increase of 16.8%.
PTA May production record high based on two reasons: on the one hand, in early May, the period spot price difference is still available, the device load to maintain a relatively high; on the other hand, with the Hengli Petrochemical 2.5 million tons of new production capacity, Jia Tong Energy 2.5 million tons of new production capacity into operation, new production capacity is still contributing to a larger output. early June, with 2.5 million tons of 100 macro device, East China a set of 750,000 tons of device restart, Shandong Weilian 2.5 million tons restarted after the load rose to near seventy percent, plus the release of new capacity, PTA production is expected to remain high.
Demand, polyester production rebounded significantly in May, June is expected to maintain a relatively high level. 5.62 million tons of polyester production in May, an increase of 5.64%; polyester start rate continued to rise, production rebounded significantly. Polyester load and production rebound mainly from polyester cash flow repair and terminal repair. With the decline in raw material prices, polyester cash flow of various categories gradually repaired, including filament cash flow repair to a high level, staple fiber enterprises to turn a profit, polyester enterprises cash flow repair boosted polyester load higher.
Inventory, as of May 25, filament enterprises inventory 21.8 days, basically unchanged from the end of April; staple fiber enterprises inventory 8.67 days, down from 10.89 days at the end of April. Overall, polyester enterprises to repair cash flow, inventory pressure is not large. May, Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machine starts to continue a small repair, rose to 73% at the end of May, which also boosted polyester load repair. The current polyester cash flow to maintain a high level, polyester load is expected to maintain a relatively high level in June. In addition, April PTA export volume of 311,400 tons, May exports 330,000 tons, with overseas demand has slowed down, PTA exports have fallen, but still at a relatively high level, so June PTA demand will remain high.
Overall, as of May 26, PTA social inventory of 3.202 million tons, up 169,000 tons from the end of April last year. Domestic PTA production continues to release, the supply release is greater than the demand rebound, PTA exports have declined, PTA has tired storage. the end of May PTA device to cash maintenance, tired storage to storage, inventory pressure has slowed down, the current device load back up, but the polyester load is at a high level, is expected to PTA inventory pressure is not large.
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