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Analysts: rubber current fundamentals are more difficult to support the price increase
2023/6/8
Recently, the heat of the news waned and rubber prices fell back to the previous support level, hovering around RMB11,600-12,100/ton. However, on June 7, Shanghai rubber futures contracts were sharply higher across the board, with the main 2309 contract closing at 12,085 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. Market participants said that the recent weakness of rubber is difficult to change, and is expected to continue to oscillate in a weak pattern in the short term.
Guotai Junan futures rubber analyst Gao Linlin told reporters that last week was boosted by the peripheral macro surface, the commodity market atmosphere turned warm, Shanghai rubber stabilized, but the plate rebound was limited. From the viewpoint of the spot market, although the plate was influenced by funds and sentiment to strengthen, the spot market remained stable and the basis difference weakened, and the market's short expectations continued. From the perspective of market participants' mentality, the basis differential is weakening, the pressure of arbitrage plate chasing increased, and some arbitrage plate added a small amount of positions to suppress the space of the plate rebound. From the viewpoint of supply and demand structure, domestic and foreign production areas are in the early stage of new rubber increment, and the short term fluctuation of raw material price is not much.
In fact, the current supply and demand structure of rubber has not yet seen substantial improvement. The company's supply is relatively stable. early June, the company gave the market a certain policy preferential support, ranging from 1%-3%, mostly linked to the task volume, the overall shipping performance is still good. On the market side, the lack of engineering infrastructure and other construction, logistics and transportation, etc. There are certain differences between regions, the terminal retail slow, coupled with serious market pressure, cash flow is limited, the will to hoard weakened, mostly to make up for the lack of goods.
The reporter learned that the recent rainfall in Thailand continues to increase, rubber trees in good condition; Vietnam fully cut, glue is still in the upper volume stage, cup rubber sufficient. On the domestic side, the average daily collection of rubber in Hainan is 3500-4000 tons, and the raw material is steadily increasing; the glue in Yunnan is starting to increase, but it is still low compared with previous years. Donghai futures rubber analyst Cai Wenjie said, due to the emergence of El Niño phenomenon, all production areas are affected to varying degrees this year, but the impact on the overall cutting progress of the production area is limited, the probability of becoming a plate topic driven in the short term is small.
"In addition, as overseas is still in the low production season, the main producing countries export volume is low, the domestic supply pressure is less, Thailand, Indonesia and other countries in April export volume for the low in the past five years, while the marginal increase in Côte d'Ivoire is still high, the first four months of exports rose 20.5% year-on-year to 480,000 tons." Cai Wenjie said.
Zhu Jintao, a rubber analyst at Everbright Futures, said that from a fundamental point of view, domestic supply has not yet been fully released, the output of glue in Yunnan is less, and the price of whole milk glue made in Hainan has risen to the price of thick milk made in flat water. On the one hand, this year, the concentrated milk downstream demand is poor, profit diversion to the production of whole milk rubber above, resulting in the whole milk glue prices; on the other hand, Hainan area raw material price center of gravity overall low, in the same period of history at a low level, also led to rubber farmers to cut enthusiasm in general, processing plants to produce more whole milk rubber.
It is worth noting that since the middle and end of May, after two months of counter-seasonal accumulation of national rubber stocks maintained, the national rubber stocks ushered in a big inflection point. "In the first quarter of this year, the huge inventory pressure that suppressed the upward movement of rubber prices was gradually released, but the overall inventory still remained high. Although the suppression of gum prices by inventories is weakening, it cannot be equivalently interpreted that after de-stocking, gum prices will usher in a stronger trend." Cai Wenjie said.
According to Zhu Jintao, the recent slow increase in tire inventory, all-steel tires continue to perform weaker than half-steel tires. From the data, all-steel tires finished inventory turnover days increased by 5.3% in the last month, while the semi-steel tires month-on-month flat. All-steel tires in the case of tired warehouse, its tire start rate of 60% near the operation, and a slight downward trend, while the semi-steel tires held steady in the vicinity of 70%. In addition, tire replacement demand or along with the increase in demand for small long holidays travel and increase. From the point of view of terminal automobile production and sales, in May, by the promotion activities and the impact of the implementation of the national six, the performance of the car market has rebounded mildly, and the increment of new energy vehicles is obvious. Therefore, it is expected that short-term demand will gradually show a mild improvement situation.
Looking ahead to the market, Zhu Jintao believes that the supply side of the low level of small growth, the demand side of a mild rebound, the fundamental logic is difficult to support the plate up, the high level of inventory to suppress the low oscillation of rubber prices.
"A comprehensive view, domestic demand repair slowly and gradually in, it is difficult to overnight, market expectations are also constantly revised, Shanghai rubber market lack of upside drive, is expected to remain low oscillation in the short term." Gao Linlin said.
Guotai Junan futures rubber analyst Gao Linlin told reporters that last week was boosted by the peripheral macro surface, the commodity market atmosphere turned warm, Shanghai rubber stabilized, but the plate rebound was limited. From the viewpoint of the spot market, although the plate was influenced by funds and sentiment to strengthen, the spot market remained stable and the basis difference weakened, and the market's short expectations continued. From the perspective of market participants' mentality, the basis differential is weakening, the pressure of arbitrage plate chasing increased, and some arbitrage plate added a small amount of positions to suppress the space of the plate rebound. From the viewpoint of supply and demand structure, domestic and foreign production areas are in the early stage of new rubber increment, and the short term fluctuation of raw material price is not much.
In fact, the current supply and demand structure of rubber has not yet seen substantial improvement. The company's supply is relatively stable. early June, the company gave the market a certain policy preferential support, ranging from 1%-3%, mostly linked to the task volume, the overall shipping performance is still good. On the market side, the lack of engineering infrastructure and other construction, logistics and transportation, etc. There are certain differences between regions, the terminal retail slow, coupled with serious market pressure, cash flow is limited, the will to hoard weakened, mostly to make up for the lack of goods.
The reporter learned that the recent rainfall in Thailand continues to increase, rubber trees in good condition; Vietnam fully cut, glue is still in the upper volume stage, cup rubber sufficient. On the domestic side, the average daily collection of rubber in Hainan is 3500-4000 tons, and the raw material is steadily increasing; the glue in Yunnan is starting to increase, but it is still low compared with previous years. Donghai futures rubber analyst Cai Wenjie said, due to the emergence of El Niño phenomenon, all production areas are affected to varying degrees this year, but the impact on the overall cutting progress of the production area is limited, the probability of becoming a plate topic driven in the short term is small.
"In addition, as overseas is still in the low production season, the main producing countries export volume is low, the domestic supply pressure is less, Thailand, Indonesia and other countries in April export volume for the low in the past five years, while the marginal increase in Côte d'Ivoire is still high, the first four months of exports rose 20.5% year-on-year to 480,000 tons." Cai Wenjie said.
Zhu Jintao, a rubber analyst at Everbright Futures, said that from a fundamental point of view, domestic supply has not yet been fully released, the output of glue in Yunnan is less, and the price of whole milk glue made in Hainan has risen to the price of thick milk made in flat water. On the one hand, this year, the concentrated milk downstream demand is poor, profit diversion to the production of whole milk rubber above, resulting in the whole milk glue prices; on the other hand, Hainan area raw material price center of gravity overall low, in the same period of history at a low level, also led to rubber farmers to cut enthusiasm in general, processing plants to produce more whole milk rubber.
It is worth noting that since the middle and end of May, after two months of counter-seasonal accumulation of national rubber stocks maintained, the national rubber stocks ushered in a big inflection point. "In the first quarter of this year, the huge inventory pressure that suppressed the upward movement of rubber prices was gradually released, but the overall inventory still remained high. Although the suppression of gum prices by inventories is weakening, it cannot be equivalently interpreted that after de-stocking, gum prices will usher in a stronger trend." Cai Wenjie said.
According to Zhu Jintao, the recent slow increase in tire inventory, all-steel tires continue to perform weaker than half-steel tires. From the data, all-steel tires finished inventory turnover days increased by 5.3% in the last month, while the semi-steel tires month-on-month flat. All-steel tires in the case of tired warehouse, its tire start rate of 60% near the operation, and a slight downward trend, while the semi-steel tires held steady in the vicinity of 70%. In addition, tire replacement demand or along with the increase in demand for small long holidays travel and increase. From the point of view of terminal automobile production and sales, in May, by the promotion activities and the impact of the implementation of the national six, the performance of the car market has rebounded mildly, and the increment of new energy vehicles is obvious. Therefore, it is expected that short-term demand will gradually show a mild improvement situation.
Looking ahead to the market, Zhu Jintao believes that the supply side of the low level of small growth, the demand side of a mild rebound, the fundamental logic is difficult to support the plate up, the high level of inventory to suppress the low oscillation of rubber prices.
"A comprehensive view, domestic demand repair slowly and gradually in, it is difficult to overnight, market expectations are also constantly revised, Shanghai rubber market lack of upside drive, is expected to remain low oscillation in the short term." Gao Linlin said.
In Cai Wenjie's view, the current fundamental drive is limited, and after the Shanghai rubber futures contract has been significantly reduced, the price center of gravity of 2309 contract will probably not change much, and the market is still expected to be presented with frequent up and down shadows.
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