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Toluene diisocyanate (TDI): supply pressure, the market is difficult to strong
2023/6/8
Since the middle and end of May, toluene diisocyanate (TDI) market has been dominated by bearishness, and prices have continued to drop, with the low-end price having broken through 17,000 yuan (tonne, same below). on June 2, the reference price of TDI was 16,000 yuan, down 17.95% compared with May 1. In the view of industry insiders, the market's bearish mentality collapsed due to the restart of Gansu Yinguang plant and the commissioning of Fujian Wanhua plant. Although the official announcement of Shanghai BASF's plant will soon be overhauled, but the contradiction between supply and demand under the low season of demand is difficult to straighten out in a short time, and the TDI market still has room for downward adjustment.
Negative dominates
"Recently, Fujian Wanhua TDI unit output qualified products, and Gansu Yinguang TDI unit also restarted smoothly." Meng Xianxing, vice president of Shandong Research Institute of Chemical Industry, said, "Although the two major devices were successfully started, there is a lag in the inflow of products into the market, so there is no substantial change in the supply and demand side of the TDI market for the time being, and the reason affecting the market quotation is more of a change in mentality under the expectation of supply increment. Inquiries into the market fell to a freezing point, transactions are still few, and even just demand orders are also delayed, TDI prices fell by nearly 10% per week."
At the same time, the TDI foreign market also failed to avoid the down market. European TDI market supply and demand is in weak balance. Although there is a good German BASF 300,000 tons / year device parking support, but in Europe and the United States economic recession in the background of terminal performance is still general. Southeast Asia TDI market decline is more obvious, the overall performance of the local demand is general, are just buying, coupled with China, Japan and South Korea market TDI guide prices are down, local customers to avoid procurement risks, expecting a strong atmosphere of decline.
Industry insiders pointed out that the market is still waiting for the time of Gansu Yinguang and Fujian Wanhua TDI plant products into the market and the specific distribution. In the future, the supply side is mixed, but the industry is weak under the grip of pessimism, coupled with the successful delivery of products from the Fujian Wanhua plant, it is expected that the TDI market will continue to decline in the short term.
Narrowing profit space
Toluene as the main upstream raw material of TDI, its market stagnant finishing. Shandong Kenli Petrochemical Group Chief Engineer Wang Quanping said, "Luoyang Petrochemical, Yatong Petrochemical's toluene unit parking maintenance, local supply is tight, refinery shipping prices took the opportunity to increase."
But toluene demand is still weak. Gasoline prices are still low, oil blending market interest in toluene is limited, domestic ethylbenzene products to enhance production, some merchants are concerned about ethylbenzene in the oil blending market for the application of toluene substitution.
After the market, domestic toluene prices slightly upward, on the one hand, because of the increase in domestic maintenance units, supply slightly reduced; on the other hand, because of the lack of profit in gasoline blending, toluene prices are lower than other aromatics, blending using toluene tendency is stronger, will also lead to a reduction in the export of local refining enterprises, while the higher cost of port holdings also support the upward price movement. But the chemical industry downstream areas of comprehensive profitability is poor, businessmen are not active in the procurement of raw materials, which is a great constraint on toluene prices.
From the TDI another raw material liquid chlorine, due to the North China individual chlor-alkali plant into the maintenance state, from the supply side there is a certain good support, but considering the downstream industry profits have not improved, short-term liquid chlorine price fluctuations are not significant.
From a comprehensive point of view, due to the firm price of TDI raw material market, TDI profit space has been narrowing. 5300 yuan of profit per ton for small devices and 7500 yuan for large devices at the beginning of May; by the end of May, the profit per ton for small devices narrowed to 2500 yuan and 4500 yuan for large devices.
Industry insiders said that with the news of TDI device production and restart landed. It is expected that in the short term, the profit of small TDI devices will remain at 1000 to 2000 yuan, and the profit of some large devices will be 3000 to 4000 yuan.
Demand has not seen a start
The price of soft foam polyether, the downstream of TDI, is gradually moving downward. Although the supply side increment is not much, but TDI import arrival is expected to suppress the market bearish mentality, coupled with the TDI upstream raw material center of gravity downward, the actual plate are not released.
After the market, TDI fundamental support is not strong, due to the downstream polyether off-season prices continue to fall, polyether enterprises are not strong will to build positions, and in the polyether thin profit and price retreat, the peroxide method of propylene oxide and propylene oxide / styrene process cost pressure increased, polyether plants there may be scheduling adjustments, the demand for TDI is weak.
Negative dominates
"Recently, Fujian Wanhua TDI unit output qualified products, and Gansu Yinguang TDI unit also restarted smoothly." Meng Xianxing, vice president of Shandong Research Institute of Chemical Industry, said, "Although the two major devices were successfully started, there is a lag in the inflow of products into the market, so there is no substantial change in the supply and demand side of the TDI market for the time being, and the reason affecting the market quotation is more of a change in mentality under the expectation of supply increment. Inquiries into the market fell to a freezing point, transactions are still few, and even just demand orders are also delayed, TDI prices fell by nearly 10% per week."
At the same time, the TDI foreign market also failed to avoid the down market. European TDI market supply and demand is in weak balance. Although there is a good German BASF 300,000 tons / year device parking support, but in Europe and the United States economic recession in the background of terminal performance is still general. Southeast Asia TDI market decline is more obvious, the overall performance of the local demand is general, are just buying, coupled with China, Japan and South Korea market TDI guide prices are down, local customers to avoid procurement risks, expecting a strong atmosphere of decline.
Industry insiders pointed out that the market is still waiting for the time of Gansu Yinguang and Fujian Wanhua TDI plant products into the market and the specific distribution. In the future, the supply side is mixed, but the industry is weak under the grip of pessimism, coupled with the successful delivery of products from the Fujian Wanhua plant, it is expected that the TDI market will continue to decline in the short term.
Narrowing profit space
Toluene as the main upstream raw material of TDI, its market stagnant finishing. Shandong Kenli Petrochemical Group Chief Engineer Wang Quanping said, "Luoyang Petrochemical, Yatong Petrochemical's toluene unit parking maintenance, local supply is tight, refinery shipping prices took the opportunity to increase."
But toluene demand is still weak. Gasoline prices are still low, oil blending market interest in toluene is limited, domestic ethylbenzene products to enhance production, some merchants are concerned about ethylbenzene in the oil blending market for the application of toluene substitution.
After the market, domestic toluene prices slightly upward, on the one hand, because of the increase in domestic maintenance units, supply slightly reduced; on the other hand, because of the lack of profit in gasoline blending, toluene prices are lower than other aromatics, blending using toluene tendency is stronger, will also lead to a reduction in the export of local refining enterprises, while the higher cost of port holdings also support the upward price movement. But the chemical industry downstream areas of comprehensive profitability is poor, businessmen are not active in the procurement of raw materials, which is a great constraint on toluene prices.
From the TDI another raw material liquid chlorine, due to the North China individual chlor-alkali plant into the maintenance state, from the supply side there is a certain good support, but considering the downstream industry profits have not improved, short-term liquid chlorine price fluctuations are not significant.
From a comprehensive point of view, due to the firm price of TDI raw material market, TDI profit space has been narrowing. 5300 yuan of profit per ton for small devices and 7500 yuan for large devices at the beginning of May; by the end of May, the profit per ton for small devices narrowed to 2500 yuan and 4500 yuan for large devices.
Industry insiders said that with the news of TDI device production and restart landed. It is expected that in the short term, the profit of small TDI devices will remain at 1000 to 2000 yuan, and the profit of some large devices will be 3000 to 4000 yuan.
Demand has not seen a start
The price of soft foam polyether, the downstream of TDI, is gradually moving downward. Although the supply side increment is not much, but TDI import arrival is expected to suppress the market bearish mentality, coupled with the TDI upstream raw material center of gravity downward, the actual plate are not released.
After the market, TDI fundamental support is not strong, due to the downstream polyether off-season prices continue to fall, polyether enterprises are not strong will to build positions, and in the polyether thin profit and price retreat, the peroxide method of propylene oxide and propylene oxide / styrene process cost pressure increased, polyether plants there may be scheduling adjustments, the demand for TDI is weak.
In addition, the uncertainty of global economic recovery is also expected to continue to affect the performance of the TDI industry chain.
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