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PTA new capacity release market supply-demand imbalance supply exceeds demand
2023/6/7
PTA (purified terephthalic acid) prices have declined due to falling costs and imbalance between supply and demand.
Data show that the monthly average price of PTA in East China market in May was RMB5663/ton, down 11% YoY and 16% YoY. Among them, the monthly average price ring hit the biggest decline in the past 10 months.
In this regard, PTA analyst An Guang said in an interview with reporters, May PTA market decline is the main reason for the decline in costs, the market supply than demand. early May, PTA new production capacity after smooth operation, resulting in the month PTA production increase than the downstream demand. However, with the cost support and the impact of the U.S. debt problem fade, it is estimated that June to August PTA market narrowly up.
Market price decline
PTA is the upstream raw material of polyester. In general, the upstream raw materials of PTA industry chain mainly includes acetic acid and crude oil production and processing of PX, downstream mainly used in the production of PET fiber, which is mainly used for civilian polyester filament and polyester staple fiber in the textile and apparel industry, polyester industrial silk is mainly used in the automotive field.
Data show that in May, the monthly average price of PTA in East China market is 5663 yuan / ton, down 11% YoY and down 16% YoY. During the month, PTA price range of 5475 ~ 6030 yuan / ton, the low end of the price range fell 641 yuan / ton compared with the previous month, the high end of the range fell 528 yuan / ton compared with the previous month.
An Guang analyzed to reporters that in May, the main reason for the PTA market decline is the cost decline, the market supply exceeds demand. May the United States and the European Central Bank raised interest rates again, the risk of default on U.S. debt rose, resulting in crude oil prices fell significantly, its monthly average price fell by more than 9%. As a result, the monthly average price of PX (CFR China) fell 11% YoY, and the monthly average raw material cost of PTA fell 570 yuan/tonne compared with April, down 9% YoY.
An Guang said that the supply of PTA exceeded demand in May, mainly due to the record high monthly production of PTA. On the one hand, the processing fee is still above the profit and loss line of large installations; on the other hand, in early May, 2.5 million tons of new PTA production capacity was put into operation smoothly, resulting in the month of PTA production increase is greater than the amount of downstream demand.
In recent years, the polyester industry production capacity is concentrated, as the upstream PTA capacity followed, a large number of enterprises began to invest in the PTA industry. As of now, the domestic PTA industry has excess capacity.
Data show that, from the supply side, at the end of May, Shandong 2.5 million tons / year, Zhejiang 2.2 million tons / year PTA device plans to restart. June, Guangdong still has 2.5 million tons / year PTA new capacity plans to put, need to pay attention to its surrounding 1.5 million tons / year PX new capacity in mid-June whether to put into operation, if PX project put into operation smoothly, it is estimated that the new PTA capacity will be put into operation in late June. PTA supply is relatively adequate, according to the currently announced overhaul, production reduction plan, the estimated monthly production of PTA in June in more than 5.3 million tons, may hit a new record high.
How is the post-market trend?
At the beginning of June, PTA downstream polyester plant start load. An light told reporters, polyester plants to enhance the load is the main reason for polyester product profit repair and polyester finished inventory days are not high. early June, polyester start load back to about 88%, if the polyester can maintain a high start load, estimated June to August polyester production between 5.37 million ~ 5.5 million tons, will give PTA market greater demand support. In addition, June to August part of the polyester new production capacity is planned to put into operation, will also increase the demand for PTA.
East China Sea futures, said the recent PTA terminal and downstream start rate rebound, on the one hand, the improvement in demand, on the other hand, there are also enterprise own factors. From the terminal point of view, the loom and the bombing start does have a lot of repair, but the differentiation is also relatively obvious, the seasonal spinning material obviously sold well, and last winter because of the epidemic factor and the pile of spinning material sales are poor. Overall, the rebound in terminal starts and the de-stocking of downstream inventories show a significant improvement in demand.
However, An Guang reminded that the new production capacity of PTA will be put into operation in June to July, and the supply pressure will continue to increase. According to the current official PTA maintenance plan, it is expected that June PTA production is maintained between 5.25 million to 5.35 million tons, July to August production in about 5.6 million tons.
An Guang stressed the need to pay attention to Guangdong 1.5 million tons / year PX new production capacity in mid-June to put into operation, if the PX project is put into operation smoothly, it is estimated that 2.5 million tons / year PTA new production capacity in late June or July to put into operation. Also need to pay attention to whether PTA processing fees continue to decline, forcing PTA device unplanned maintenance. In addition, PTA supply pressure is increasing, if the PTA processing fee continues to fall in June, the PTA enterprises may increase production cuts in July to August.
An light that, from a comprehensive point of view, it is estimated that June to August PTA production in 5.25 million to 5.4 million tons. 2010 to 2022 PTA historical data show that June to July PTA market down year has 7 years, up year has 6 years, of which down year accounted for 54%, the overall trend is weak. PTA market is expected to rise narrowly in June to August this year, stronger than the same period in history.
Data show that the monthly average price of PTA in East China market in May was RMB5663/ton, down 11% YoY and 16% YoY. Among them, the monthly average price ring hit the biggest decline in the past 10 months.
In this regard, PTA analyst An Guang said in an interview with reporters, May PTA market decline is the main reason for the decline in costs, the market supply than demand. early May, PTA new production capacity after smooth operation, resulting in the month PTA production increase than the downstream demand. However, with the cost support and the impact of the U.S. debt problem fade, it is estimated that June to August PTA market narrowly up.
Market price decline
PTA is the upstream raw material of polyester. In general, the upstream raw materials of PTA industry chain mainly includes acetic acid and crude oil production and processing of PX, downstream mainly used in the production of PET fiber, which is mainly used for civilian polyester filament and polyester staple fiber in the textile and apparel industry, polyester industrial silk is mainly used in the automotive field.
Data show that in May, the monthly average price of PTA in East China market is 5663 yuan / ton, down 11% YoY and down 16% YoY. During the month, PTA price range of 5475 ~ 6030 yuan / ton, the low end of the price range fell 641 yuan / ton compared with the previous month, the high end of the range fell 528 yuan / ton compared with the previous month.
An Guang analyzed to reporters that in May, the main reason for the PTA market decline is the cost decline, the market supply exceeds demand. May the United States and the European Central Bank raised interest rates again, the risk of default on U.S. debt rose, resulting in crude oil prices fell significantly, its monthly average price fell by more than 9%. As a result, the monthly average price of PX (CFR China) fell 11% YoY, and the monthly average raw material cost of PTA fell 570 yuan/tonne compared with April, down 9% YoY.
An Guang said that the supply of PTA exceeded demand in May, mainly due to the record high monthly production of PTA. On the one hand, the processing fee is still above the profit and loss line of large installations; on the other hand, in early May, 2.5 million tons of new PTA production capacity was put into operation smoothly, resulting in the month of PTA production increase is greater than the amount of downstream demand.
In recent years, the polyester industry production capacity is concentrated, as the upstream PTA capacity followed, a large number of enterprises began to invest in the PTA industry. As of now, the domestic PTA industry has excess capacity.
Data show that, from the supply side, at the end of May, Shandong 2.5 million tons / year, Zhejiang 2.2 million tons / year PTA device plans to restart. June, Guangdong still has 2.5 million tons / year PTA new capacity plans to put, need to pay attention to its surrounding 1.5 million tons / year PX new capacity in mid-June whether to put into operation, if PX project put into operation smoothly, it is estimated that the new PTA capacity will be put into operation in late June. PTA supply is relatively adequate, according to the currently announced overhaul, production reduction plan, the estimated monthly production of PTA in June in more than 5.3 million tons, may hit a new record high.
How is the post-market trend?
At the beginning of June, PTA downstream polyester plant start load. An light told reporters, polyester plants to enhance the load is the main reason for polyester product profit repair and polyester finished inventory days are not high. early June, polyester start load back to about 88%, if the polyester can maintain a high start load, estimated June to August polyester production between 5.37 million ~ 5.5 million tons, will give PTA market greater demand support. In addition, June to August part of the polyester new production capacity is planned to put into operation, will also increase the demand for PTA.
East China Sea futures, said the recent PTA terminal and downstream start rate rebound, on the one hand, the improvement in demand, on the other hand, there are also enterprise own factors. From the terminal point of view, the loom and the bombing start does have a lot of repair, but the differentiation is also relatively obvious, the seasonal spinning material obviously sold well, and last winter because of the epidemic factor and the pile of spinning material sales are poor. Overall, the rebound in terminal starts and the de-stocking of downstream inventories show a significant improvement in demand.
However, An Guang reminded that the new production capacity of PTA will be put into operation in June to July, and the supply pressure will continue to increase. According to the current official PTA maintenance plan, it is expected that June PTA production is maintained between 5.25 million to 5.35 million tons, July to August production in about 5.6 million tons.
An Guang stressed the need to pay attention to Guangdong 1.5 million tons / year PX new production capacity in mid-June to put into operation, if the PX project is put into operation smoothly, it is estimated that 2.5 million tons / year PTA new production capacity in late June or July to put into operation. Also need to pay attention to whether PTA processing fees continue to decline, forcing PTA device unplanned maintenance. In addition, PTA supply pressure is increasing, if the PTA processing fee continues to fall in June, the PTA enterprises may increase production cuts in July to August.
An light that, from a comprehensive point of view, it is estimated that June to August PTA production in 5.25 million to 5.4 million tons. 2010 to 2022 PTA historical data show that June to July PTA market down year has 7 years, up year has 6 years, of which down year accounted for 54%, the overall trend is weak. PTA market is expected to rise narrowly in June to August this year, stronger than the same period in history.
Guoyuan futures also said that the end of May to early June, the PTA market in the supply side continues to contract, the demand side is expected to improve one after another, the price of a small repair space. But in the medium and long term, in the transfer of oil demand continues to weaken the status quo, coupled with the subsequent market overhaul of the device restarted one after another, the pressure on the supply and demand side will gradually come to the fore, so the price is expected to fall back.
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