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Driven by multiple factors, the photovoltaic industry may usher in internal adjustment changes
2023/6/5
On June 1, TCL Central announced another silicon wafer price cut, which is the third time in less than a month that the company has cut silicon wafer prices. Previously, on May 29, another silicon wafer leader, Longi Green Energy, had announced a wafer price cut.
"Silicon prices have also been on a downward trend for more than 10 consecutive weeks. This year, from the upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain of silicon to the downstream of the module, are different degrees of decline, one of the important factors is the photovoltaic industry has a phase of overcapacity." Wanlian securities investment adviser Qu put in an interview with reporters, said in excess capacity, cell technology iteration and other multiple factors, driven by the PV industry or usher in internal adjustment changes.
Half of the enterprises or eliminated?
Silicon wafer prices continue to fall behind the industry's concerns about overcapacity.
At the media conference of "New Energy Market Long-Term Outlook Report 2023 China" held by Bloomberg New Energy Finance on June 1, Zhao Tianyi, an analyst of energy transition at Bloomberg New Energy Finance China, said that the problem of overcapacity in PV has gradually emerged since this year, and Bloomberg New Energy Finance had predicted at the beginning of the year that at least three medium-sized manufacturers might go bankrupt this year.
And in late May at the SNEC photovoltaic exhibition, the founder and president of Longi Green Energy, Li Zhenguo, said that more than half of the companies will be eliminated from the market in the next two to three years.
Li Zhenguo believes that the energy transition consensus has been formed, the industry will grow in size, but the stage of surplus situation, may occur at any time. The first to be hurt is the overall not ready for the enterprise, such as financial vulnerability, technology is not enough leading, early brand channel is not perfect.
"In recent years, the development of the PV industry has been accelerating, and in the context of the installed capacity target of the '14th Five-Year Plan', the PV industry has continued to maintain a high boom, with a large amount of capital, especially outside players, entering the market." Wang Tieshan, director of the Industrial Development and Investment Research Center of Xi'an Engineering University, said in an interview with reporters that the speed of investment and construction of PV industry capacity in the past few years can be described as a "wild ride".
InfoLink has a statistical data, only 2022, the number of cross-border photovoltaic companies reached 75. "The entry of a large number of players, is bound to bring the scale of production capacity 'soaring'." To silicon, for example, Qu Fang expected 2023 silicon annual production capacity will reach 2.1 million tons, "while the actual demand for silicon is only 1.1 million tons, although from the current market price production enterprises still have a certain profit margin, but because of the imbalance between supply and demand, silicon prices are expected to have further decline in space, and even the future will appear close to or below the cost price phenomenon. "
Li Zhenguo said that the end of this year, the whole industry will form more than 700GW of production capacity and still have capacity in the planning, if not stop, the end of next year the industry capacity scale will reach 1000GW.
And industry insiders and some institutions are expected to 2023 global PV new installations in about 350GW. InfoLink's analysis report said that the first quarter of Europe and Brazil and other overseas markets a large number of pull, the gradual recovery of demand in the United States, the rise of the Middle East market, coupled with China's installed data exceeded expectations, the market in all regions are obvious signs of growth, making PV module factory in the year since the continuous upward adjustment Shipment expectations, SNEC PV exhibition during some manufacturers optimistic expectations this year, the global new installations or reach 470GW to 500GW, compared to the previous expected growth of more than 70%.
"From the industry's demand, the next few years is still in a high boom period, from some companies announced the order situation, demand is still relatively strong, still in a state of high capacity utilization, the industry is still expanding production on a large scale, but the longer this situation continues, the more serious the degree of stage overcapacity, after the reshuffle is more brutal. " Wang Tieshan said, especially now is in the technology iteration period, some capacity may soon become backward capacity.
Technology iteration to promote industry change
In Qu Fang's view, the main theme of the photovoltaic industry is to reduce costs and increase efficiency, in this principle, the innovation of technology is an important factor to promote the development of the industry. And some backward technology, production capacity is bound to be eliminated.
"In general, the technological progress of PV products is still underway, but compared to the past decade, the magnitude is not so great." Li Zhenguo said, from the industry chain of photovoltaic, the cell link there is still relatively large technology iteration space.
At present, the cell as the core, the PV industry's technology route is being transformed from P-type to N-type. And this is also the mainstream of the current technology iteration of the photovoltaic industry.
In the overcapacity industry before the reshuffle, whether there are companies through technological breakthroughs to achieve rapid development, just like the year of Longi Green Energy?
"The current situation is already different from the market situation ten years ago." In Qu Fang's opinion, based on the current situation, the possibility is slim. At that time, the overall scale of the photovoltaic industry is also small, into the enterprise is also small, Longi green energy resolutely choose in the monocrystalline silicon technology breakthrough to the whole industry to bring change, and soon become the industry leader. But the probability of this happening is currently very low. "Every technology path now, whether it's N-type TOPCon, HJT, or calcium titanium ore, the head companies have a layout."
Shen Wenzhong, director of the Solar Energy Research Institute of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, said in an interview that from the current situation, TOPCon is likely to replace the mainstream position of PERC cell technology in the next three to five years. LONGi Green Energy's HPBC cell is a differentiated positioning product, mainly for the distributed market, with further maturity in technology, yield improvement and cost reduction in the future, it is expected to achieve lower cost than PERC and TOPCon.
At present, the highest conversion efficiency record of crystalline silicon PV cell is 26.81% set by Longi Green Energy's HJT cell technology, breaking the world record held by Japanese companies for 5 years.
Not long ago, Longi Green Energy announced that it had achieved a conversion efficiency of 31.8% for crystalline silicon-calcium titanite stacked cells on commercial-grade suede CZ wafers, which set a record of the top three in the world and the first in China.
Shen Wenzhong said that the choice of technology route depends on each company's own positioning. At present, TOPCon technology is relatively mature, but three to five years later, HJT cell technology or the mainstream choice of crystalline silicon cells.
In Li Zhenguo's view, during the technology iteration period, the company's ability to balance is crucial. If too much capacity is invested in the previous generation of technology, the original capacity will lag behind when the new technology comes out; but the original technology end demand makes the original capacity can not be completely stagnant, so in this process the enterprise has been doing balance. Before LONGi Green Energy finds a more ultimate technology route, it will still be relatively cautious to arrange production capacity.
According to Longi Green Energy's plan, it will launch mass production of cell products with conversion efficiency close to 27% within two years.
"The PV industry has entered a period of internal adjustment and change." Qu Fang said, photovoltaic as China's most mature and internationally leading whole industry chain industry, although facing a short-term low-end overcapacity situation, but along with technological upgrading and structural adjustment within the industry, along with industry demand is still growing steadily, overall, the next few years will still be in a more stable development period.
JIN DUN CHEMICAL has built a special (meth) acrylic monomer manufacturing base in ZHEJIANG province. This makes sure the stable supply of HEMA, HPMA, HEA, HPA, GMA with high level quality. Our special acrylate monomers are widely used for thermosetting acrylic resins, crosslinkable emulsion polymers, acrylate anaerobic adhesive, two-component acrylate adhesive, solvent acrylate adhesive, emulsion acrylate adhesive, paper finishing agent and painting acrylic resins in adhesive.We have also developed the new and special (meth) acrylic monomers and derivatives. Such as the fluorinated acrylate monomers, It can be widely used in coating leveling agent, paints, inks, photosensitive resins, optical materials, fiber treatment, modifier for plastic or rubber field. We are aiming to be the top supplier in the field of special acrylate monomers, to share our rich experience with better quality products and professional service.
"Silicon prices have also been on a downward trend for more than 10 consecutive weeks. This year, from the upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain of silicon to the downstream of the module, are different degrees of decline, one of the important factors is the photovoltaic industry has a phase of overcapacity." Wanlian securities investment adviser Qu put in an interview with reporters, said in excess capacity, cell technology iteration and other multiple factors, driven by the PV industry or usher in internal adjustment changes.
Half of the enterprises or eliminated?
Silicon wafer prices continue to fall behind the industry's concerns about overcapacity.
At the media conference of "New Energy Market Long-Term Outlook Report 2023 China" held by Bloomberg New Energy Finance on June 1, Zhao Tianyi, an analyst of energy transition at Bloomberg New Energy Finance China, said that the problem of overcapacity in PV has gradually emerged since this year, and Bloomberg New Energy Finance had predicted at the beginning of the year that at least three medium-sized manufacturers might go bankrupt this year.
And in late May at the SNEC photovoltaic exhibition, the founder and president of Longi Green Energy, Li Zhenguo, said that more than half of the companies will be eliminated from the market in the next two to three years.
Li Zhenguo believes that the energy transition consensus has been formed, the industry will grow in size, but the stage of surplus situation, may occur at any time. The first to be hurt is the overall not ready for the enterprise, such as financial vulnerability, technology is not enough leading, early brand channel is not perfect.
"In recent years, the development of the PV industry has been accelerating, and in the context of the installed capacity target of the '14th Five-Year Plan', the PV industry has continued to maintain a high boom, with a large amount of capital, especially outside players, entering the market." Wang Tieshan, director of the Industrial Development and Investment Research Center of Xi'an Engineering University, said in an interview with reporters that the speed of investment and construction of PV industry capacity in the past few years can be described as a "wild ride".
InfoLink has a statistical data, only 2022, the number of cross-border photovoltaic companies reached 75. "The entry of a large number of players, is bound to bring the scale of production capacity 'soaring'." To silicon, for example, Qu Fang expected 2023 silicon annual production capacity will reach 2.1 million tons, "while the actual demand for silicon is only 1.1 million tons, although from the current market price production enterprises still have a certain profit margin, but because of the imbalance between supply and demand, silicon prices are expected to have further decline in space, and even the future will appear close to or below the cost price phenomenon. "
Li Zhenguo said that the end of this year, the whole industry will form more than 700GW of production capacity and still have capacity in the planning, if not stop, the end of next year the industry capacity scale will reach 1000GW.
And industry insiders and some institutions are expected to 2023 global PV new installations in about 350GW. InfoLink's analysis report said that the first quarter of Europe and Brazil and other overseas markets a large number of pull, the gradual recovery of demand in the United States, the rise of the Middle East market, coupled with China's installed data exceeded expectations, the market in all regions are obvious signs of growth, making PV module factory in the year since the continuous upward adjustment Shipment expectations, SNEC PV exhibition during some manufacturers optimistic expectations this year, the global new installations or reach 470GW to 500GW, compared to the previous expected growth of more than 70%.
"From the industry's demand, the next few years is still in a high boom period, from some companies announced the order situation, demand is still relatively strong, still in a state of high capacity utilization, the industry is still expanding production on a large scale, but the longer this situation continues, the more serious the degree of stage overcapacity, after the reshuffle is more brutal. " Wang Tieshan said, especially now is in the technology iteration period, some capacity may soon become backward capacity.
Technology iteration to promote industry change
In Qu Fang's view, the main theme of the photovoltaic industry is to reduce costs and increase efficiency, in this principle, the innovation of technology is an important factor to promote the development of the industry. And some backward technology, production capacity is bound to be eliminated.
"In general, the technological progress of PV products is still underway, but compared to the past decade, the magnitude is not so great." Li Zhenguo said, from the industry chain of photovoltaic, the cell link there is still relatively large technology iteration space.
At present, the cell as the core, the PV industry's technology route is being transformed from P-type to N-type. And this is also the mainstream of the current technology iteration of the photovoltaic industry.
In the overcapacity industry before the reshuffle, whether there are companies through technological breakthroughs to achieve rapid development, just like the year of Longi Green Energy?
"The current situation is already different from the market situation ten years ago." In Qu Fang's opinion, based on the current situation, the possibility is slim. At that time, the overall scale of the photovoltaic industry is also small, into the enterprise is also small, Longi green energy resolutely choose in the monocrystalline silicon technology breakthrough to the whole industry to bring change, and soon become the industry leader. But the probability of this happening is currently very low. "Every technology path now, whether it's N-type TOPCon, HJT, or calcium titanium ore, the head companies have a layout."
Shen Wenzhong, director of the Solar Energy Research Institute of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, said in an interview that from the current situation, TOPCon is likely to replace the mainstream position of PERC cell technology in the next three to five years. LONGi Green Energy's HPBC cell is a differentiated positioning product, mainly for the distributed market, with further maturity in technology, yield improvement and cost reduction in the future, it is expected to achieve lower cost than PERC and TOPCon.
At present, the highest conversion efficiency record of crystalline silicon PV cell is 26.81% set by Longi Green Energy's HJT cell technology, breaking the world record held by Japanese companies for 5 years.
Not long ago, Longi Green Energy announced that it had achieved a conversion efficiency of 31.8% for crystalline silicon-calcium titanite stacked cells on commercial-grade suede CZ wafers, which set a record of the top three in the world and the first in China.
Shen Wenzhong said that the choice of technology route depends on each company's own positioning. At present, TOPCon technology is relatively mature, but three to five years later, HJT cell technology or the mainstream choice of crystalline silicon cells.
In Li Zhenguo's view, during the technology iteration period, the company's ability to balance is crucial. If too much capacity is invested in the previous generation of technology, the original capacity will lag behind when the new technology comes out; but the original technology end demand makes the original capacity can not be completely stagnant, so in this process the enterprise has been doing balance. Before LONGi Green Energy finds a more ultimate technology route, it will still be relatively cautious to arrange production capacity.
According to Longi Green Energy's plan, it will launch mass production of cell products with conversion efficiency close to 27% within two years.
"The PV industry has entered a period of internal adjustment and change." Qu Fang said, photovoltaic as China's most mature and internationally leading whole industry chain industry, although facing a short-term low-end overcapacity situation, but along with technological upgrading and structural adjustment within the industry, along with industry demand is still growing steadily, overall, the next few years will still be in a more stable development period.
JIN DUN CHEMICAL has built a special (meth) acrylic monomer manufacturing base in ZHEJIANG province. This makes sure the stable supply of HEMA, HPMA, HEA, HPA, GMA with high level quality. Our special acrylate monomers are widely used for thermosetting acrylic resins, crosslinkable emulsion polymers, acrylate anaerobic adhesive, two-component acrylate adhesive, solvent acrylate adhesive, emulsion acrylate adhesive, paper finishing agent and painting acrylic resins in adhesive.We have also developed the new and special (meth) acrylic monomers and derivatives. Such as the fluorinated acrylate monomers, It can be widely used in coating leveling agent, paints, inks, photosensitive resins, optical materials, fiber treatment, modifier for plastic or rubber field. We are aiming to be the top supplier in the field of special acrylate monomers, to share our rich experience with better quality products and professional service.
