MTBE (Methyl tert-butyl ether) Expected to Sustain High Prosperity
2023/5/31
From the demand side, global refining capacity growth has slowed down in the past two years due to declining demand and energy policies. In 2021, the capacity even experienced a contraction with a growth rate of -0.41%. Domestically, there is a continuous promotion of "reducing oil and increasing chemicals," with refineries using more naphtha components for cracking to produce ethylene, resulting in a reduction in the production of straight-run gasoline and reformate gasoline, and a slowdown in the overall gasoline production growth.
From the consumption side, the number of gasoline-powered vehicles continues to increase. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the domestic sales of traditional gasoline-powered passenger cars increased by 65.2% year-on-year in April. Gasoline-powered vehicles still have a significant market share, and with the continuous economic recovery, the gasoline consumption market is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity. As a major blending component, the demand for MTBE is bound to rise. The price of MTBE blended gasoline is highly correlated with the gasoline price. Especially with the nationwide implementation of China 6B standard gasoline, to meet the new olefin index requirements, MTBE and iso-octane blending components are needed. Driven by the high prosperity of gasoline consumption and the implementation of the China 6B standard, the demand for MTBE in the market will further increase.
Under the trend of increasing industry profits, integrated refineries that extensively use self-produced C4 components to produce MTBE and deep-processing enterprises with stable raw material supply and regional advantages are expected to benefit from it. In recent years, large-scale integrated refining units invested and constructed by major refineries have been put into operation one after another, resulting in a reduction of C4 raw materials in the external market due to their self-owned C4 deep-processing production chains. Moreover, there is an imbalance in domestic C4 production capacity in different regions, with some areas unable to meet market demand. As a result, some independent MTBE deep-processing enterprises have difficulty obtaining sufficient raw materials and cannot enjoy the benefits brought by the prosperous cycle of the MTBE market.
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