"Due to the strengthened support in urea raw materials and the recovery of the domestic economy, coupled with the rebound in demand in sectors such as fertilizers, automotive urea, and engineered wood panels, the urea prices are expected to rise in the short term," said Gao Li, Deputy Secretary-General of the China Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry Association, at the National Summit Forum on Concentrated Adhesive and Wood Coating Industries held in Linyi, Shandong on May 10.

"The natural gas supply volume signed for 2023 is expected to decrease by about 20% compared to the previous year, leading to a price increase of 30% to 35%. It is projected that urea production will decrease this year, and the cost will be significantly higher than last year," Gao Li added.

The Nitrogenous Fertilizer Association predicts that the newly added urea production capacity in 2023 will be 4.92 million tons per year. Except for a 500,000-ton-per-year urea unit expected to start production in May, the rest will be put into operation after the fourth quarter, making no substantial contribution to this year's urea production capacity. Gao Li also pointed out, "With the approach of the summer fertilizer application season, the domestic agricultural market's demand for base fertilizers and compound fertilizers will gradually increase, which is favorable for the domestic urea market. Additionally, the recovery of the domestic economy and the rebound in demand for automotive urea, engineered wood panels, and other sectors will also drive the steady improvement of urea companies and price increases."

Zhang Jianhui, Secretary-General of the Committee on Adhesives and Coatings for Woodworking of the China Forest Products Industry Association, expects that China's production of engineered wood panels in 2023 will reach or even exceed 340 million cubic meters, and the consumption of urea in the engineered wood panel industry will exceed 12 million tons, significantly boosting the demand for urea.

Cheng Baodong, Director and Professor of the National Research Institute of Forest Economics and Trade at Beijing Forestry University, pointed out that in the current context of the comprehensive green and low-carbon transformation of the national economy, the wood processing industry is no longer a sunset industry but a sunrise industry. Many developed countries consider the development of the wood processing industry as an important lever to restart their economies. As a major exporter of engineered wood panels, China will also benefit from this trend, providing strong support for ensuring urea prices.

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