"The export and import volumes of soda ash in March exceeded expectations, indicating that the positive trend in exports continues." Recently, insiders in the soda ash market stated.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs of China, the export volume of soda ash in the first quarter of 2023 was 450,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 45.10%; the import volume of soda ash was 47,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 37%. Among them, the export volume of soda ash in March was 163,000 tons, an increase of 18,600 tons compared to the same period last year, while the import volume of soda ash was 45,600 tons, an increase of 38,500 tons compared to the same period last year.

"Previously, it was expected that the export volume of soda ash would decrease while the import volume would increase. However, the actual data shows that both performances exceeded market expectations," said Zhou Xiaoyan, a senior analyst at Guotou Anxin Futures.

Analyst Zhang Linglu from Guotai Junan Futures analyzed that the significant increase in soda ash imports in March was mainly due to the tight supply and demand balance in the domestic market. Downstream industries needed to supplement their usage through imports, with most companies focusing on float glass factories and photovoltaic glass factories. This additional imported volume directly entered downstream glass factories, with a relatively limited impact on the market. However, to some extent, it may lead to a reduction in the amount of soda ash purchased from domestic manufacturers by downstream factories.

"In March, the export volume further increased to 163,000 tons, surpassing market expectations based on the high base of last year, showing a strong supply and demand situation in the industry and a positive export trend that continues," said Wei Chaoming, a senior analyst at Founder CIFCO Futures. He believes that with the high international energy prices in 2022, soda ash exports significantly increased, and this year's export volume is expected to further rise based on the high base of last year, indicating that international demand for soda ash has strong resilience, and the expected significant weakening of international demand needs to be revised.

In response, Li Jiahao, an analyst at Nanhua Futures, stated that compared to last year, this year's expectations for soda ash exports have weakened. This is mainly due to the return of supply in the background of foreign energy decline, the contraction of price differentials between domestic and foreign alkali, and the decrease in shipping costs, resulting in a weaker performance in exports on a month-on-month basis.

In the short term, the export and import data of soda ash exceeding expectations is evidence of the healthy operation of the domestic soda ash market. The profits of soda ash enterprises are still relatively high, and with the approaching commissioning of new production capacity by Far East Energy, manufacturers have no plans for maintenance to protect their profits, maintaining high market supply. Short-term demand for light soda ash is unlikely to improve, while the good market conditions for downstream float glass may drive an increase in production capacity. The expected changes in the supply and demand pattern in the later period have caused significant changes in the mindset of the supply and demand sides. It is expected that in the short term, soda ash manufacturers will continue to actively sell, and spot prices will continue to decline. In summary, the short-term soda ash market is expected to fluctuate between the steady increase in demand for heavy soda ash and the continuous decline in spot prices.

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